Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAY 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE BREEZY TRADE WINDS TODAY.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEK...CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE ISLANDS...THANKS TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HOVERING HIGH OVER THE STATE FOR DAYS NOW WILL NOT BE
MOVING MUCH. THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CAUSED BY THE LOW COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAPIDLY MOVING HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION
FOR VERY LONG...SO THE CHANCE OF MAJOR FLOODING IS SMALL OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
MAY AGAIN FORM ALONG THE KONA COAST. IF SO...THE RAINS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH...SO FLOODING THERE IS POSSIBLE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE SO
STRONG THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
BETWEEN WINDWARD AND LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG
ISLAND...HENCE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SLACKEN AND SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGH WILL FORM UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UP OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SLOWER MOVING
HEAVY RAINS MOVING OVER SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON. AM WAITING FOR A FEW MORE BITS OF INFORMATION BEFORE
DECIDING TO ISSUE THE WATCH.

TRADE WINDS AND IMPROVING WEATHER MAY STAGE A COMEBACK NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN...HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE WET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE UPR LOW OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD +RA AND
ISOL TSRA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. INTERMITTENT LOWERED
VIS/CIGS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WINDWARD TAF SITES. GUSTY ERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

AIRMETS SIERRA TANGO AND ZULU WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THERE ARE NO SIGMETS AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE
THE AVN PRODUCTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY...THEN AS THE TRADES SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVER THE WINDIER LOCATIONS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED SUNDAY AS THE WINDS CONTINUE
TO DROP OFF.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. AS THE TRADE WINDS SLOWLY DROP...SO WILL THE SURF.

THE PRESENT SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY LARGER
SOUTH SWELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL MAY
BOOST SURF INTO THE HEAD HIGH RANGE SUNDAY...THEN DECLINE MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

PUBLIC...CRAIG
AVIATION...DEJESUS