Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
205 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED MAINLY FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND ZONES UNTIL 9 PM.
MORNING THOUGHTS REMAIN VALID AS STATED BLO.

MODIFIED 12Z GYX SOUNDING FOR EXPECTED AFTN CONDITIONS YIELDS CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG SFC HEATING AND TDS
IN THE LOWER 60S. MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE MEAGER
SIDE...PRODUCING A SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING. DESPITE FREEZING LVLS
BEING ABOUT 1 KFT LOWER THAN ON THE 4TH OF JULY...THIS FACTOR
SHOULD MITIGATE THE SVR HAIL THREAT.

HOWEVER...THE MODIFIED SOUNDING CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
INVERTED V SIGNATURE. GENERAL WLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY ACT TO MIX
OUT LLVL MOISTURE...ONLY ENHANCING THE SFC T/TD SPREAD. AS A
RESULT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LKLY BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT
TDY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS AND LINES/CLUSTERS THAT CAN
ORGANIZE COLD POOLS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND ADJACENT VERMONT...AND PUSH EASTWARD FROM THERE...LIKELY
REACHING NRN NH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHORT WAVE ASCENT WILL BE. THIS IS WHERE WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A BIT
MORE IN QUESTION AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL WANE AS ONE MOVES SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...DISINTEGRATING CIN WITH STRONG
HEATING AND SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
WDLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF NH DOWN INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ME BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CWFA FOR THU. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS
QUIET AND DRY. TEMPS A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OUT TO
SEA. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ONLY BE SOME
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT POSSIBLE TODAY IN STORMS.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IF SATURDAYS
SYSTEM TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH THEN WE MIGHT SEE SOME IFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.
THOUGH WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTN. SOME STRONG TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE COMING OFF THE LAND THIS EVE...BEFORE WEAKENING TNGT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

LEGRO/POHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
153 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

MEZ007>009-012>014-NHZ001>009-071800-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
153 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY AND CROSS TONIGHT.
A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER COVERAGE SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ018>028-NHZ010-013-014-071800-
INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-
INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-
KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
153 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY AND CROSS TONIGHT.
A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER COVERAGE SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE WATCH AREA ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS EVENING. ANY STORM MAY BE CAPABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AS THEY DO SO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>154-071800-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
153 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.