Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM...SVR WATCH OUR FOR ENTIRE CWA TIL 8 PM. BEST THREAT STILL
LOOKS TO BE FOOTHILLS AND TH COASTAL PLAIN...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND SW NH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FRO TRAINING AND HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN SERN HALF OF CWA. SCT LINE OF CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ATTM. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR BETWEEN 22-24Z...WITH
CLEARING TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF DROP IN RH TONIGHT...IT WILL TURN
WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT....BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY
AND RAIN-FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S EXCEPT MAYBE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MAYBE EVEN PUSH 90 DEGREES IN
SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT BUT IT APPEARS FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD RESULT IN AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THIS
IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. POOR SHORT WAVE TIMING AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES
UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH.

CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL LOWER VIS TO IFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH
SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DTRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESECIALLY IN THE BAYS AND
NEAR THE SHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
929 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-051330-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
929 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...COMBINING WITH WINDS ALOFT TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THROUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THREATS AS ALWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

ANZ150>154-051330-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
929 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COASTS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             3 NW NORRIDGEWOCK       44.74N  69.83W
07/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       SOMERSET           ME   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON WINDING HILL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100240

GYX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
255 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

MEZ012-019-020-024-042000-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
255 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...OXFORD
COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 254 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH PARIS TO 6 MILES WEST OF MECHANIC FALLS TO 7
MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND SEBAGO LAKE STATE
PARK...OXFORD...OTISFIELD...NAPLES...CASCO...RAYMOND...POLAND...
MECHANIC FALLS...NORTH WINDHAM AND RANGE PONDS STATE PARK THROUGH 400
PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4415 7007 4379 7018 4387 7065 4422 7054

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             1 W OTISFIELD           44.15N  70.58W
07/04/2011  E0.25 INCH       OXFORD             ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100241

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             CAMBRIDGE               45.02N  69.47W
07/04/2011  E1.75 INCH       SOMERSET           ME   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT CAMBRIDGE GENERAL STORE

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100242

GYX

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