Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...YET ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...AS SEVERAL SENSORS ACRS
THE UPSTATE ARE REPORTING DWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPR 90S. SO I WILL EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL THE UPSTATE AND ADDED STEPHENS GA AND THE SRN NC
FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 145 PM...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FA THRU FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING NORTH
OF THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
LLVL WAVE NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHILE
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP A
PERSISTENT LLVL EASTERLY FLOW...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE NAM HAS REALLY TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE FLOW...AND
LOOKS LIKE WEAK CAD SETUP FOR FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE OVERDONE
(MET TEMPS STAY IN UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ACRS NC FOOTHILLS/NW
PIEDMONT). BUT THE NAM TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SO
IT WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.

TONIGHT...FCST SNDGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTBY REMAINS...WHILE EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW INCREASES. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE THE UPSLOPE FLOW
CAPPED...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHWRS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
MAY ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE NE DUE TO THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO
EXPECT A WARM...MUGGY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE UPR 60S MTN VLYS AND MID
70S PIEDMONT).

FRIDAY...CHALLENGING FCST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...AS PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS A WEDGY SETUP WITH QPF POSSIBLY HOLDING IN LOW
CLOUDS ACRS THE BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT OF NC (MAYBE EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH). THIS COMPLICATES THE TEMP FCST AND CHCS OF CONVECTION. FCST
SNDGS SHOW THAT CIN MAY REMAIN IF SKIES DONT CLEAR OUT EARLY ENUF.
HOWEVER...IF THEY DO...TEMPS WILL JUMP A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE WHAT
IS FCST AND SHUD BE ENUF FOR SCATTERED STORMS. SEVERE THREAT DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID ON PREV FCSTS (SHORTWAVE TRACK FURTHER
NORTH AND LESS MID LVL DRY AIR). FOR NOW...TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z
NAM...WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT CLOUDY INTO THE
AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPR 90S ACRS THE GA/SC
PIEDMONT WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THU...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT.
THE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE WEAK AND DECAYING
PIEDMONT FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE AND LIGHT UPSLOPE IN
THE MTNS. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION IN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH ON SAT. THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH
IMPROVING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO GREATLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
WILL FORECAST SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SAT FOR NOW...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF CATEGORICAL POPS ARE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WILL GO AT OR BELOW THE COOLER
MET MOS FOR TEMPS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY
THREATENING FOR SEVERE TSTMS SAT. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT IF ANY SHOWERS BECOME
ANCHORED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD PARE BACK TO MAINLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER AS THE 850 MB FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN SW SECTIONS SUN
AFTN...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BEST OVERLAP. A
LEE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVER SAT VALUES WITH LESS CLOUDS AND A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
ACTIVE AT LEAST IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MERGES EMILY INTO A LOW OVER THE MID TO
EASTERN CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT SREF CYCLE AT 00Z
MONDAY.  HOWEVER...BY THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD THE OTHER MODELS
HAVE NO HINT OF EMILY CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA.  A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROFINESS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES YET AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.  ONE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA AND DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN MID WEEK AND POTENTIALLY SOME
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT AS THE SHORTWAVES
PASS AND THE UPPER TROFINESS BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...NELY WINDS SHUD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TURN MORE ENE
(MAYBE EVEN ESE). PLENTY OF CU SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE. STILL THINK
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...SO WILL KEEP
CB MENTION. OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS BACK TO NE WITH AN MVFR
STRATUS DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NE BY DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE TRENDED
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVING MVFR AT 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON
HOW THE STRATUS WILL EVOLVE AND HOW QUICKLY IT CAN DISSIPATE AFTER
DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS THE
UPSTATE...BUT COVERAGE SHUD REMAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED. SO
ONLY ADDED A CB MENTION ATTM. AT TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...A SHWR
WAS SEEN ON RADAR NE OF THE GSP TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD A SECOND SURGE OF NELY
WIND AND STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE NE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE THE CLOUDS REACHING HKY AND GSP...BUT REMAINING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. WITH THAT SAID...MTN VALLEYS MAY BE CLEAR ENUF TO ALLOW
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KAVL GOING IFR WITH FOG FOR EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ON EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE WEEKEND.
RESTRICTIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN FRI NGT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN. MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTMS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

FOR THURSDAY AUGUST 4...

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG...99 DEGREES...SET IN 2006
CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTL AIRPORT...98 DEGREES...SET IN 2006
ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...93 DEGREES...SET IN 2008

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ068>072-082-
     507>510.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-051900-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
248 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-051900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
248 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-501>506-051900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
248 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

GAZ029-SCZ011-041715-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-
1235 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND
SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALHOUN FALLS...OR 12 MILES
EAST OF ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CALHOUN FALLS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3397 8260 3397 8264 3398 8266 3398 8273
      3402 8279 3417 8268 3406 8240 3406 8246
      3407 8248 3407 8253 3401 8259 3396 8256

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

NCZ064-041915-
TRANSYLVANIA-
236 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY THROUGH 315
PM EDT...

AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BREVARD...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES.

LAT...LON 3530 8262 3515 8259 3512 8263 3513 8265
      3512 8267 3513 8268 3510 8269 3509 8273
      3525 8293 3531 8288 3532 8282 3539 8278

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

SCZ007-041945-
SPARTANBURG-
311 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF MAYO...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOILING SPRINGS SC...
  MAYO...
  COWPENS...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3514 8207 3519 8189 3517 8186 3517 8187
      3508 8181 3504 8181 3503 8179 3497 8177
      3489 8198

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-042000-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
330 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 400
PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CEDAR MOUNTAIN...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...
  CAESARS HEAD...
  JONES GAP STATE PARK...
  MARIETTA...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3526 8268 3521 8260 3517 8259 3515 8258
      3516 8255 3516 8251 3509 8239 3498 8250
      3495 8260 3512 8282

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

SCZ006-007-042045-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
406 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GREENVILLE AND WESTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREER...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN
GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREER...
  DUNCAN...
  GSP AIRPORT...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3475 8234 3502 8239 3507 8218 3481 8205

RB