Severe Thunderstorm Warning 562, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

478 
WWUS52 KGSP 040420
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1220 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

NCC075-173-040445-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0562.000000T0000Z-110804T0445Z/
GRAHAM NC-SWAIN NC-
1220 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EDT
FOR WESTERN SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 1217 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FONTANA VILLAGE...OR 7
MILES NORTH OF ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FONTANA
LAKE AND STECOAH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8403 3553 8388 3553 8383
      3557 8377 3558 8360 3557 8349 3559 8348
      3558 8338 3525 8370 3524 8378 3525 8384
      3521 8396 3524 8401 3531 8404 3536 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 297DEG 28KT 3541 8376

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1048 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE HEAT RELIEF. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED OVER NORTHEAST TENN
HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT ZONES
THIS EVENING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY RARE...BUT THERE
HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF 40-50 DBZ ECHOES DURING THE PAST HOUR...SO
THE 03Z UPDATE WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A
DECENT...ALBEIT BRIEF DOWNPOUR. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER MIDDLE/ EAST TENN...LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO
VORT MAX DIVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. STEERING FLOW IS BRINGING
THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS...AND IN FACT THERE IS
A NICE RIBBON OF MUCAPE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN MIDDLE TENN INTO OUR
SW MTNS. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND
SURROUNDING AREAS BY AROUND 06Z. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS BEFORE COVERAGE DWINDLES TO
ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED. I THINK IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...IT WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BETTER FORCING ACROSS SE TENN...N ALABAMA/N GEORGIA. HOWEVER...I
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST ACROSS OUR SW MTNS. A BIGGER
ISSUE COULD BE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH DECENT DEEP LAYER FLOW IS ALLOWING
INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO MOVE ALONG AT A REASONABLE PACE...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT NEW CELL GROWTH OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF OLDER CELLS...SO
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TRAINING STORMS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. WE WILL MENTION THE ABOVE THREATS IN AN UPDATED HWO.

850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL A DEGREE OR TWO TOMORROW...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 IN THE SE PIEDMONT...BUT WITH POOLING DEWPOINTS LIKELY
BOOSTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 105. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE SE FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO ADVERTISE
SCT CONVECTIVE POPS SE OF THE BOUNDARY THU AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS RATHER NEBULOUS THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTW THE OP
MODELS WITH A S/W AFFECTING THE REGION SAT...BUT THE MAIN VARIABLES
TO AFFECT PRECIP AND CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA FRI....WINDS
WILL REMAIN E/LY YET WEAK AND MAINTAIN LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE ATL AS
WELL AS WEAK MECHANICAL LIFT. TD/S WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THE ATMOS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SKINNY CAPE W/O MUCH IF ANY CIN...SO EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO INSTIGATE FAIRLY EARLY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY AREA WILL BE OUTSIDE THE NC
MTNS EXCEPT FOR THE ERN FACING SLOPES. WITH PWATS IN THE LOWER 2
INCH RANGE AND WEAK FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES
PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING BOTH FRI AND SAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS A
LITTLE LOW BOTH DAYS AS WELL...WITH LOW END CAPE AND MOIST
SOUNDINGS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG IN
POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT CROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WERE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE LOWER METMOS GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL BE EASY TO
FORM AND MAINTAINED WITH INCREASING E/LY AND SE/LY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STILL...HIGHS WILL REACH A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
UPPER TROFFINESS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING SCT STORMS THAT MAY LAST LONGER THAN THE USUAL DIURNAL
TREND. A FRONTAL ZONE DROPS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED SCT MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THERE IS A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON WHICH
DAYS HAVE A BETTER PRECIP CHC...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON TUE...KEEPING CONVECTION LIMITED TO ISOLATED
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
ARE PRACTICALLY NIL. NW WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VRBL (OR
CALM) THIS EVENING...LIKELY RETURNING OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW...BUT
REMAINING LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...
POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INTRODUCING A CB
ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH MORNING MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KAVL. WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW... POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE INTRODUCING A CB ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OR DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRI. MOISTURE ON EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE.
RESTRICTIONS COULD DEVELOP FRI INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ026-028-
     029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ009-
     011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-050300-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1056 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS NEAR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE STORMS
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ001>008-010-050300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
1056 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-050300-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1056 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE