Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS TROUGH LATE TODAY. A SECOND AND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY....WHILE A COLD FRONT REACHES NC
FROM THE NORTH. DEEP...RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE
AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CAPE WILL PEAK AT AROUND
1000 J/KG BOTH AFTERNOONS. MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WILL LIMIT
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT HAIL
POTENTIAL. ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY...INCREASING SHEAR AND DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT...DESPITE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN HIGH BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...WITH LESS OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE STRENGTHENING
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE
SHORT RANGE. SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN ON SAT THEN STALLS ACROSS THE SRN CWFA FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF NUMEROUS DIURNAL TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER AND SFC SUPPORT. THAT SAID...CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU
THE NITE GIVEN THE CONTINUED FORCING. DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEVELOP SATURDAY...BUT PROFILES WILL BE RATHER MOIST. THEREFORE...
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT THAN SVR STORMS. EVEN THO THE
SHORT WAVE WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...IT WILL BE
SHEARING OUT AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN
SATURDAY. WARMER MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SUGGEST LOWER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVERGENCE COULD BE
ENUF TO KICK OFF DEEP CONVECTION...ESP ACROSS THE WRN CWFA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE DIURNAL ISOLATED TSRA. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
SHOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1205 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. EVEN THO H5 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -4C...SOME ISOLATED
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS OVER THE MTNS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. GUIDANCE AGREES ON RIDGE
RETROGRADING THRU THE PERIOD WITH A TROF FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC.
THIS FLOW WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. THE
BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THU. FORCING WILL INCREASE AS WEAK
WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL INCREASING THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA...GFS
ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF KEEP A DIURNAL TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HAVE MAINLY DIURNAL CHC POP THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS START
OUT TUE ABOVE NORMAL BUT FALL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THU. LOWS REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACTUALLY OCCURS AT FIELD...ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD
BE IFR. GUIDANCE VARIES IN SUPPORT OF MVFR VSBY AND CIG BRIEFLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE WORSE IF RAIN FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CIG WILL BE CARRIED FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH COVERAGE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MERITS MENTION OF
VCTS AT ALL SITES WITH A LOW VFR CIG. ANY SITES UNDER A CONVECTIVE
CORE WOULD SEE IFR CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR AT DAWN FRIDAY IN RAIN MOISTENED AIR. KAVL STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF IFR FOG AT DAWN BASED ON GUIDANCE....WITH MVFR AT
KHKY. SC SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNLESS RAIN FALLS. FRIDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...STALLING OVER STALLING
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS WHERE
RAIN FEEL THE DAY BEFORE. IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
330 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND WITH LIGHT SHEAR...MANY
OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS
WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF...DAMAGING WINDS OVER SMALL AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...WILL DEVELOP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE ORGANIZED AREAS OF STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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