Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY AND
STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA TO END THE WEEK.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING THE CWFA FROM THE
WEST...PROVIDING ENUF SUPPORT FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACRS WRN NC. PLENTY OF INSTBY IN PLACE TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THRU
THE EVENING...AS SHWRS/TSTMS TRACK FROM NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT. TWEAKED POPS AGAIN TO REFLECT TRENDS. MOST OF THE CHANGES
FOR THIS UPDATE WERE FOR AVIATION GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 1815Z...THE LATEST W/V IMAGES INDICATES A WEAK S/W MOVING OVER
THE NC MTNS. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A THICK BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXISTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...WITH ENHANCED CU AND ISO TSRA ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST FROM THE MTNS TO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BASED ON
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE S/W...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE SUITABLE FOR CONVECTION TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING...KEEPING A CHC POP A
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KFFC AND KGSO INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TUESDAY. THE FZL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 14 TO 15 KFT WITH WBZ ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED FEET BELOW THE FZL. CORE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH...WITH THE 55 DBZ HEIGHT AROUND 16 KFT AND THE 50 TO 55 DBZ
HEIGHT IN THE AROUND 33 KFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
2000 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER THE
HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP MOIST PROFILE WILL NOT SUPPLY AN SIGNIFICANT LEVEL
OF DCAPE. SEVERAL OF THIS AFTERNOON/S STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS...ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL. THIS MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES
FROM YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH K INDEX VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. RICH MOISTURE CONTENT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO
APPROACH FFW RAINFALL RATES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SEVERE WIND AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MODERATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS...WEAK SHEAR...AND HIGH PW VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS AND AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD VERIFY CLOSELY
TO PERSISTENCE FROM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY....THEN MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE GREATEST IN THE MOIST AIR MASS
SOUTH OTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND DEPARTS....FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REACHES THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED...
GREATEST IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW FILLS OVER SC...THEN
WILL RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BROADENS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. ON
WEDNESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD NORMAL AS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM STORMS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL BY 0030Z. TDWR VELOCITIES INDICATE GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BNDRY. CONFIDENCE OF TS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF...BUT
MAY BE ADDED WITH AMENDMENT SHORTLY. GUIDANCE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. WILL KEEP MVFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED AGAIN THU AFTN. SO ALREADY HAVE SH AND CB
MENTION AFTER 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE GETTING A LATE START...BUT AT TIME
OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ON RADAR. WILL KEEP CB
MENTION AT ALL SITES FOR NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH A TEMPO FOR TS AT
KHKY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CELLS THERE. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING PLENTY OF
VFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...MVFR
FOG LOOKS LIKELY EAST OF THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KAVL. FOG WILL DISSIPATE ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...THE CHANCES FOR AREAS OF MORNING
FOG...LOW STRATUS...AND NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-080000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
756 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STATIONARY OR REPEATEDLY MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BE
VERY MOIST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NCZ053-064-065-070015-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
750 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 815
PM EDT...

AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF CRUSO...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AVERY CREEK...
  ETOWAH...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

LAT...LON 3539 8241 3523 8263 3538 8280 3539 8277
      3541 8274 3543 8275 3544 8278 3546 8279
      3555 8270

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NCZ036-057-071-072-070030-
CABARRUS-IREDELL-MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-
754 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CABARRUS...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CRAVEN TO KANNAPOLIS
TO 4 MILES WEST OF CORNELIUS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKWELL...
  HUNTERSVILLE...
  CONCORD...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND
DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3542 8035 3531 8057 3530 8098
      3534 8099 3536 8092 3537 8098 3539 8096
      3545 8094 3550 8096 3555 8095 3556 8068
      3572 8033 3568 8033 3564 8029 3558 8020
      3550 8018

HG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>