Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CREEP
UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE
AS WELL. LESS HOT AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WEAK COLD FRONTS STALL OUT OVER OUR
REGION AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOMINANT RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. WEAK VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE NRLY FLOW
ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAY MAKE A SWD RUN ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY DAMPEN OVER TIME. THIS MEANS
THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SE/SRLY UPSLOPE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ANY ISOLATED
TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING
STEADY BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES ALONG THE SE FRINGE OF THE CWFA.
ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THERE FIRST...AND THEN IN THE SW
MTNS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SOME FAIRLY HIGH DCAPE AIR IS OBSERVED IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME TSTM LANGUAGE TO THE
SRN/SE PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE NC MTNS.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM N OF THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED OPACITY TO THE
CLOUDS. PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG WILL BE ADVERTISED AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LAYS OVER NORTH
OF THE REGION. 700 MB TEMPS WILL RISE UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE TO
+8 C SUN AFTN. HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER SUN AFTN AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THEIR SLOW RECOVERY AND
PROFILES MOISTEN. POPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10 PERCENT HIGHER SUN AFTN
THAN TODAY. MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK FROM THE UPR MS
VLY SUN EVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TUE...AS UPR RIDGE
RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL SAG S/SE ACRS THE OH VLY TO THE MID ATLC...STALLING IN E-W
ORIENTATION JUST N OF THE CWFA BY MON AFTN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG BNDRY WITH PWATS OVR 1.5" AND CAPE VALUES OVR
2000 J/KG BY MID AFTN. UPR SUPPORT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS
DECENT FOR EARLY JULY IN THIS AREA...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING DEEP
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK
HEATING. FCST SNDGS ARE MODEST ON MID LVL DRY AIR AND DELTA
THETA-E...BUT HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO JUMP
INTO THE MID 90S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND DWPTS IN THE 60S. SO ALL THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS SHEAR...AS
BEST MID LVL FLOW REMAINS N OF CWFA AND 0-3 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 15
KTS ON BOTH NAM/GFS. WITH THAT SAID...ENUF INSTBY SHUD BE IN PLACE
FOR STRONG PULSE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. WIND THREAT
SEEMS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY. ALSO...SLOW STORMS AND HIGH
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT NEAR THE FRONT
(MAINLY I-40 AND N).

MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY...NOT IDEAL FCST FOR FIREWORKS...WITH SOLID
CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. HOPEFULLY...THINGS
WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIKELY STORMS WILL LINGER THRU
THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT SAG A LTL SOUTH INTO THE
UPSTATE FOR TUESDAY...WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO MONDAY. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...AND MODELS HAVE A LTL MOISTER
SOUNDINGS. SO DECENT SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY LOWER SVR THREAT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR SO LOWER
THAN MONDAY AS THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...TO START THIS PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE EASTERN STATES IN A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OVER CANADA.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES EASTERN CANADA.  THIS NEXT
FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT IN A SIMILAR MANNER FROM THE GULF COAST TO
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  AN INTERESTING FEATURE IS A
WEAK TROPICAL LOW MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA ON THE
CANADIAN MODEL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REACHING JACKSONVILLE 00Z
FRIDAY.  THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 00Z FRIDAY TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY
SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ITS HINT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  IF THE TREND WERE
MORE CANADIAN AND ECM...WE WOULD GET MORE RAINFALL AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT POSSIBLY MORE I-85 AND EAST IF THAT FRONT STALLS TOWARD
THE COAST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.  USED A MORE MANUAL METHOD OF SKY GRID
EDITING TODAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAYS HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF KCLT IS ONCE AGAIN
SPOTTY AS DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCT CU/STRATOCU SHOULD BE THE STORY FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION LINGERING. WINDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY SE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANY VARIANCE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT IMPACT S OPS AT THE AIRFIELD. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE SW WITH MIXING LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST FROM
KAVL TO THE SC TAF SITES THIS AFTN...AND LESS SO AT KHKY WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S. ANY ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SW MTNS AND
THE SRN PIEDMONT. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF CB CLOUDS AT KAVL
AFTER 20Z SINCE INHIBITION MAY BE OVERCOME IN NEARBY PROFILES. LIGHT
SE WINDS LATE TODAY WILL TURN MORE S TO SW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR FOG CHANCES TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AT KAVL APPEAR TO BE A BIT
GREATER WITH DEWPOINTS STILL RUNNING 60 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUN AFTN...AND
THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. MORNING FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS THROUGH MID
WEEK...AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT
THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-031815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ006>009-031815-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004-005-010>014-019-031815-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM CHESTER TO LAURENS TO ANDERSON. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DIME
TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

NCZ063-021945-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAPPHIRE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CASHIERS...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3518 8306 3516 8300 3515 8298 3513 8298
      3510 8302 3505 8305 3504 8302 3503 8301
      3508 8315

LANE