Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...HOT...DRY UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES TO START THE WEEKEND.  THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER OUR AREA.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NE GA MTNS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
WITH COOLING. FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY VALUES AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.

A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED JUST S OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S IN OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP...ARE KEEPING
CUMULUS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND FLAT. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 2000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE ACROSS UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SRN
PIEDMONT...BUT VERY LITTLE TRIGGERING IS APPARENT. ALOFT...DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
STRONG RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH AXIS MOVES SE
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING ATOP THIS RIDGE...AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP IT FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT RUN TO THE SE OVERNIGHT.
FURTHER...NEARLY ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS QUICKLY DAMPEN ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTN. ONE
EXCEPTION IS OUR WORKSTATION WRF FROM THE NMM CORE WHICH DEVELOPS
TSTMS OVER THE SW VA MTNS AND ALLOWS THEM TO RUN SE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED
BY THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WILL THUS CONFINE LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE EXTREME S/SW FRINGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL
KEEP SOME SCATTERED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS MAY ONCE
AGAIN GET TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND UPSTREAM DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE N.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SE TO S ON SAT WILL PERMIT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS A BIT MORE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTN.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY...RELATIVELY DRY PROFILES
WILL ALLOW THEM TO ONCE AGAIN MIX OUT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. WILL ADVERTISE LOW END CHANCES IN THE SW MTNS AND EXTEND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION UP THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE AFTN.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SOURCES FOR TEMPERATURES LOOKS VERY REASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID
SOUTH WILL BE BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROF TO
DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING A LITTLE DEEPER RETURN FLOW ACRS
THE CWFA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AFTN...BUT ENUF BL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO
GENERATE MODEST INSTBY. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT MAYBE
ENUF FOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED PULSE
TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS WITH SOME ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE PIEDMONT
WITHIN DEEP N/NE FLOW ALOFT. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
CONVERGENCE THERE WILL BE OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHETHER DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM MTN CONVECTION...A LEE TROF OR A SURGING SEA BREEZE FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER NAM/MET FOR POPS...BUT TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS/MAV ON MAX TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 90S PIEDMONT
(80S TO LWR 90S MTNS). LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MIN TEMPS
MAINLY 60S MTNS AND LWR 70S PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...ON MONDAY...THE EASTERN PART OF THE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHERN STATES WEAKENS AS SOME TROFINESS BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN STATES.  THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
ROUGHLY POSITIONED EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WASH OUT AND SAG A LITTLE MORE SOUTH INTO MID WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL AID IN
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO THE NORMAL HIGHS...BUT
STILL 80S MOUNTAINS TO MOSTLY LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS IS
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING CONSIDERED TO OVER DO THE LOWERING
OF THE HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST IN COMPARISON TO THE MAJORITY OF
THE OTHERS. DIURNAL TRENDS IN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...KEPT FEW-SCT HI-BASED CU AT ALL TERMINALS
THRU THE PD WITH SCT CIRRUS ABOVE. DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED AT KAVL
SO GOING WITH GUIDANCE AND INCLUDING MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...
OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE PD. LGT NE WINDS WILL BECOME E SAT MRNG...
THEN SE TO S AT LESS THAN 10KT IN THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION
ACROSS MTN VALLEYS THRU NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT AFTN-EVE
TSTMS AS WELL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/RB
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG/RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
528 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

GAZ017-020030-
HABERSHAM-
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
WHITE COUNTY...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS IN THE BATESVILLE AREA.

LAT...LON 3480 8368 3482 8366 3483 8363 3482 8358
      3479 8356 3466 8358 3469 8365 3476 8363

LANE