Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION TOOK ITS TIME INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS
FINALLY STARTED ACROSS THE MTNS...AND TO OUR SOUTH ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT FIRST WAVE OF SVR STORMS TO BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...AN MCV AND SECONDARY BOUNDARY/WEAK FRONT
SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS AS THE
ENTIRE PACKAGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT POP TRENDS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH COVERAGE
RAMPING UP TO NUMEROUS OVER THE MTNS THEN SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA. POP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SERN CWFA THRU DAYBREAK. CAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH NO CIN. HOWEVER...
DCAPE VALUES HAVE FALLEN SOMEWHAT AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HEATING...WHILE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME ORGANIZATION
IS EXPECTED...SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED. THAT SAID...
IF COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN....THEN SVR WILL BE LIKELY.
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S...DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER. EXPECT ATMOS TO REMAIN CAPPED THRU THE DAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THERE COULD LEAD TO MOISTURE POOLING AND FORCING ENUF TO BREAK THE
CAP. FOR NOW...HAVE NO MENTIONABLE POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
ATALNTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS INDICATE
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDING EASTWARD. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 1215 PM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGRREMENT THAT THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PORTENDS ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE HOT
TEMPS WITH SUPRESSED DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH HANDLES THIS SCENARIO WELL. HENCE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...
WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON SAT...AND
APPROACHING IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES ON SUN. EXPECT THAT ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN TOP VARIETY BOTH DAYS.
ON MON/TUE...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECWMF IN
REGARD TO HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE SE U.S.
HPC USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH ALLOWS FOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
MON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUE AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. TEMPS MON AND TUE REMAIN HOT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HOT AS SUN
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION NOT NEAR THE TAF SITE...BUT CB CLOSE ENUF TO
INCLUDE AT THE START. STILL EXPECT BKN LINE OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT -SHRA BKN CB IN
THE TAF WITH LITTLE CHANGE. SWLY WIND BECOMES WSW THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NW THIS EVENING AS WEAK FRONT MOVES THRU. VFR EXPECTED UNLESS
CELL MOVES OVER THE AIRFIELD. WIND GOES NLY OVERNIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. INCREASING NELY WIND EXPECTED WED MORN WITH SCT
MID CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT COULD KEEP IT AT BAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED WITH CB ALL
AREAS THEN TIMED IN -SHRA AND BKN CB. WLY WIND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
EVENING WHEN WIND GOES NW BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING SKIES AND NLY
TO NWLY WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED FOG AT KAVL/KAND
WHICH ARE MORE FOG PRONE...BUT IT COULD HAPPEN ANY LOCATION.
INCREASING N TO NELY WIND WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER ANY
FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED LATE AFT/EVE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...THEN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SLOW
MOVING STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NCZ053-065-282015-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AVERY CREEK...OR 13 MILES
NORTH OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AVERY CREEK...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3534 8244 3532 8264 3540 8272 3544 8278
      3547 8280 3552 8278 3555 8252

CSH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NCZ033-501-282215-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
525 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDGEMONT...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOWING
ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLOBE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3608 8144 3591 8174 3597 8182 3597 8183
      3600 8191 3608 8192 3612 8183 3613 8172
      3613 8157

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NCZ035-056-502-504-282230-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURKE...NORTHERN
CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HICKORY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HICKORY...
  BETHLEHEM...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3589 8103 3580 8108 3577 8111 3566 8133
      3576 8150 3590 8134

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NCZ071-072-282230-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
549 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CABARRUS AND EASTERN MECKLENBURG
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EASTLAND MALL...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MINT HILL...
  UNC CHARLOTTE...
  HARRISBURG...
  CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...
  CONCORD...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3518 8051 3521 8055 3507 8072 3516 8086
      3551 8076 3549 8030

CSH