Severe Thunderstorm Warning 493, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION TOOK ITS TIME INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS
FINALLY STARTED ACROSS THE MTNS...AND TO OUR SOUTH ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT FIRST WAVE OF SVR STORMS TO BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...AN MCV AND SECONDARY BOUNDARY/WEAK FRONT
SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS AS THE
ENTIRE PACKAGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT POP TRENDS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH COVERAGE
RAMPING UP TO NUMEROUS OVER THE MTNS THEN SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA. POP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SERN CWFA THRU DAYBREAK. CAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH NO CIN. HOWEVER...
DCAPE VALUES HAVE FALLEN SOMEWHAT AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HEATING...WHILE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME ORGANIZATION
IS EXPECTED...SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED. THAT SAID...
IF COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN....THEN SVR WILL BE LIKELY.
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S...DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER. EXPECT ATMOS TO REMAIN CAPPED THRU THE DAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THERE COULD LEAD TO MOISTURE POOLING AND FORCING ENUF TO BREAK THE
CAP. FOR NOW...HAVE NO MENTIONABLE POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
ATALNTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS INDICATE
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDING EASTWARD. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 1215 PM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGRREMENT THAT THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PORTENDS ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE HOT
TEMPS WITH SUPRESSED DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH HANDLES THIS SCENARIO WELL. HENCE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...
WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON SAT...AND
APPROACHING IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES ON SUN. EXPECT THAT ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN TOP VARIETY BOTH DAYS.
ON MON/TUE...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECWMF IN
REGARD TO HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE SE U.S.
HPC USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH ALLOWS FOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
MON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUE AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. TEMPS MON AND TUE REMAIN HOT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HOT AS SUN
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION NOT NEAR THE TAF SITE...BUT CB CLOSE ENUF TO
INCLUDE AT THE START. STILL EXPECT BKN LINE OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT -SHRA BKN CB IN
THE TAF WITH LITTLE CHANGE. SWLY WIND BECOMES WSW THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NW THIS EVENING AS WEAK FRONT MOVES THRU. VFR EXPECTED UNLESS
CELL MOVES OVER THE AIRFIELD. WIND GOES NLY OVERNIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. INCREASING NELY WIND EXPECTED WED MORN WITH SCT
MID CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT COULD KEEP IT AT BAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED WITH CB ALL
AREAS THEN TIMED IN -SHRA AND BKN CB. WLY WIND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
EVENING WHEN WIND GOES NW BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING SKIES AND NLY
TO NWLY WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED FOG AT KAVL/KAND
WHICH ARE MORE FOG PRONE...BUT IT COULD HAPPEN ANY LOCATION.
INCREASING N TO NELY WIND WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER ANY
FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED LATE AFT/EVE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...THEN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SLOW
MOVING STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW TAYLORSVILLE       35.94N 81.20W
06/28/2011                   ALEXANDER          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON PINEY GROVE ROAD.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE CHARLOTTE          35.18N 80.81W
06/28/2011                   MECKLENBURG        NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING TRAFFIC NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            RANDOLPH ROAD AND COLVILLE ROAD.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE CHARLOTTE          35.17N 80.80W
06/28/2011                   MECKLENBURG        NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON MONROE ROAD AND BLOCKING TRAFFIC...BETWEEN
            DUNN AVENUE AND BRIAR CREEK.

&&

BSH

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