Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
954 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
PROVIDING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WHILE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST VA.
RADAR SHOWS GRADUALLY DECREASING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT
OF UPSTATE SC...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT
AND THE NORTHEAST GA PIEDMONT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DEW
POINTS VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AS MUCH RAIN AS SOME
AREAS RECEIVED...FOG WOULD SEEM LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION...BUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO SOME RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U80S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO
MID 90S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RANGE 1 TO 3 DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE SHOULD TRIGGER TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEFORE THE CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. I WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCHC EAST. AS THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR N. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT OUR
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SEVERAL WEAK
CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY SO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY IS AN
INTERESTING DAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE
DAY. THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO STARTS TO BUCKLE THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE DAY COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. AM THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY WOULD HANG UP
OVER THE MTNS ON SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS OUR POP WOULD BE MORE LIKE
WHAT IS IN THE GFS. HAVE THUS KEPT A DECENT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER
ONTARIO AT 00Z MONDAY AND DIGGING AN UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST.
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES...WE WILL END UP IN A NW FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES. AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE POP
ALTOGETHER...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS ALWAYS FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOVING THE HIGH CENTER PAST TO
OUR N THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SPELL A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER FOR MON-WED.
EARLIER RUNS EVEN SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP AND SOME
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LESS SUPPORT
FROM THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...BUT HAVE STILL CUT A
CATEGORY OFF THE TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE SO EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMTH AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS DIMINISH. A RAIN SOAKED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
FOG TO EAST AT DAWN...BUT WITH MINIMAL RAIN AND LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION AT FIELD...TAF VSBY WILL CARRY LOW END VFR AT DAYBREAK.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE
LIGHT NORTH WINDS GO CALM. MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS AT A MINIMUM ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN AT KGSP AND KGMU WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR EXPECTED AT KAVL AND KHKY. DEW POINT DEPRESSION
RATHER LARGE AT KAND. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS GETTING THE GREATEST COVERAGE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
956 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-110200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
956 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT WITH THE POSSIBLY OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             1 N CHESNEE             35.16N 81.86W
06/09/2011  E0.88 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            A FEW PEOPLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CHESNEE SAW DIME TO
            NICKEL SIZED HAIL. NICKEL SIZED BEING THE LARGEST ON
            HORSESHOE CIRCLE. THERE WERE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL
            BUT NOBODY KNEW OF ANY DAMAGE.

0458 PM     HAIL             1 SSW MINT HILL         35.16N 80.67W
06/09/2011  E1.25 INCH       MECKLENBURG        NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS DIME TO QUARTER SIZED...BUT A FEW
            PIECES OF HAIL WAS AS LARGE AS A HALF DOLLAR. THE POLICE
            DEPARTMENT IN MINT HILL ALSO REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL.
            THERE WAS NOT MUCH WIND REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
907 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ036-057-072-100145-
CABARRUS-IREDELL-ROWAN-
907 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN
IREDELL AND WESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 903 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENOCHVILLE...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CONCORD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ENOCHVILLE...
  KANNAPOLIS...
  LANDIS...
  CHINA GROVE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8036 3540 8077 3541 8077 3542 8075
      3547 8078 3550 8079 3551 8082 3569 8089
      3574 8045

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             1 N BULADEAN            36.12N 82.19W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           NC   PUBLIC

            A RELATIVE OF A SPOTTER SAID HAIL WAS AROUND THE SIZE OF
            A QUARTER AND FELL FOR A SHORT TIME.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW BULADEAN          36.15N 82.22W
06/09/2011                   MITCHELL           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A SPOTTER WHO IS ALSO A FIRE FIGHTER REPORTED SEVERAL
            TREES DOWN NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN ON THE MITCHELL COUNTY AND
            TENNESSEE BORDER.

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
06/09/2011                   GREENVILLE         SC   911 CALL CENTER

            THE WIND GUST OF 58 KNOTS WHICH IS 67 MPH CAUSED A CESSNA
            TO TIP OVER AND CLIPPED ITS WING. OTHER MINOR PROBLEMS
            LIKE TARPS WERE BLOWN AROUND...BUT NO OTHER DAMAGE IS
            KNOWN AT THE GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERLOO                34.35N 82.06W
06/09/2011                   LAURENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN WATERLOO. NO REPORT OF HAIL AT THE
            CURRENT TIME.

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALISBURY               35.67N 80.48W
06/09/2011                   ROWAN              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME AND ROOF DAMAGE AT A
            MANUFACTURING FACILITY. BOTH OCCURRED ABOUT THE SAME
            TIME.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1114 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ071-072-082-100400-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-UNION-
1114 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MECKLENBURG...NORTHERN
UNION AND SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1114 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINT HILL...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MIDLAND...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3516 8032 3509 8065 3526 8073 3539 8043
      3533 8040 3519 8050 3517 8046 3518 8037
      3517 8035 3518 8033

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1131 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ082-100415-
UNION-
1131 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT UNION COUNTY THROUGH 1215 AM
EDT...

AT 1127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROE...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONROE...
  MARSHVILLE...
  UNIONVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3481 8058 3481 8079 3482 8080 3489 8080
      3515 8051 3497 8031

HG