Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

269 
WWUS52 KGSP 101927
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCC011-121-102015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0320.000000T0000Z-110610T2015Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-
327 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CROSSNORE...
  INGALLS...

LAT...LON 3613 8181 3610 8179 3597 8185 3600 8190
      3595 8196 3592 8195 3591 8198 3589 8198
      3599 8219 3613 8205 3613 8204 3621 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 030DEG 3KT 3607 8195

$$

RWH

900 
WWUS52 KGSP 101958
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCC011-121-102008-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0320.000000T0000Z-110610T2015Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MITCHELL AND
AVERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.

LAT...LON 3613 8181 3610 8179 3597 8185 3600 8190
      3595 8196 3592 8195 3591 8198 3589 8198
      3599 8219 3613 8205 3613 8204 3621 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 030DEG 3KT 3605 8197

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 1745Z...VIS SATELLITE INDICATED ENHANCED CU OVER THE MTN RIDGES
WITH A SOLID CU FIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN CLT METRO AREA. LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LITTLE TO NO VALUES OF CIN. I
EXPECT TO SEE CU CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE RIDGES AND EAST OF
I-85 WITHIN A SFC TROF. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO POPULATE
THESE TWO AREA THROUGH 0Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID
EVENING...THEN WILL ASHE OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING. CLEARING SKY
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT. AREAS WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP LIGHT FOG AROUND DAWN.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
U60S EAST.

THE FZL THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 13.2 TO 13.5 KFT...PLACING
THE 55 DBZ CORE HEIGHT AROUND 25 KFT. SHEAR WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS IS
NEARLY ZERO...SUPPORTING A PURE PULSE THUNDERSTORM STORM MODE. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THE LOW SHEAR AND DEEP MOISTURE IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS
COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...MODERATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SVR TSRA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BOTH THE SVR AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

SATURDAY...ENVIRONMENT AGAIN APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF EARLY AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA INITIATION ACROSS THE MTNS...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS A 1 TO 2 DEGREE
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN GREATER
CIN ACROSS THE CWA...REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...CAPES MAY FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY HIGH PWS...GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH
K-INDEX VALUES IN THE U30S. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FROM TODAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IN THE HWO FOR SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U80S ACROSS THE MTNS TO L90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE FCST...AS AN UPPER LOW
MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. AS THE FLOW BUCKLES
AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY
OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION COULD REACH THE MTNS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY SO THE POP STARTS
RAMPING UP FROM THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. EXPECT
SUNDAY TO BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY AND THINK THE SREF HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL-ASSISTED
CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODELS DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...SO TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY COOLER MONDAY. AT ISSUE IS THE MODELS HANDLING OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE...PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...LATE IN THE DAY DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NW THRU THE TN VALLEY. ALL THREE HAVE THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT RESPOND. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
HAS A BIG MCS REACHING THE MTNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW THE SREF WHICH HAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY...AND THUS NO PRECIP CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY EVENING WITH
THE GENERAL IDEA THAT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF EXPECTED OFF THE EAST COAST.
OBVIOUSLY...IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME REMNANT MCS...WE WILL
HAVE TO REVISE THIS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THIS SCENARIO. THE PATTERN REMAINS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER TROF MIGRATES FURTHER OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.
WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS A LITTLE BUSIER. THE NEXT UPPER TROF
SHOULD MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND GT LAKES THURSDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE FCST AREA...THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXTRA FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND BETTER MOISTURE
SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE NOT
NECESSARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 17Z...CU WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE INDICATES A SHRA ALONG THE TN LINE IN SWAIN CO. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND WITHIN A SFC
TROF EAST OF I-85 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY MID EVENING...AND DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. I WILL
INDICATE CB AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS AT KCLT AND KAVL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FAIRLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND EXPECTED
RAINFALL...I WILL FORECAST MVFR FOG AT KAVL AND VFR FOG AT KAND
AROUND DAWN. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW TO
SCT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
RESULT...WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH AT LEAST A FEW OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL FAVOR A FEW AREAS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1217 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             5 NW MARION             35.72N 82.08W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL AT THE LAKE TOHOMA DAM.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1229 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             7 W BURNSVILLE          35.92N 82.42W
06/09/2011  E0.75 INCH       YANCEY             NC   PUBLIC

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE SWISS             35.91N 82.44W
06/09/2011                   YANCEY             NC   PUBLIC

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCZ062-063-101845-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MACON AND SOUTHERN
JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF THORPE RESERVOIR...OR 9 MILES
EAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THORPE
  RESERVOIR.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3524 8314 3507 8311 3506 8327 3522 8329

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCZ049-101900-
YANCEY-
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3579 8216 3574 8220 3570 8226 3574 8232
      3578 8234 3583 8233 3583 8221

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCZ033-101945-
AVERY-
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINVILLE...OR NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LINVILLE...
  NEWLAND...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3620 8195 3615 8182 3611 8180 3608 8176
      3596 8181 3600 8190 3593 8196 3596 8205
      3600 8206 3602 8204 3604 8206

RWH