Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NRN
PART OF THE UPSTATE AS OF 18 UTC. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM AND THE REGION WILL COME
UNDER INCREASING NVA. THE 12 UTC HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AXIS OF +12
TO +13 DEG C H8 DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MTNS. QUITE A BIT OF
CU HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST AXIS...THOUGH NOTHING OF MUCH VERTICAL
EXTENT HAS FIRED OUTSIDE THE MTNS AS OF YET. THE NAM AND GFS STILL
HAVE 30 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARNING BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWN ACROSS THE SW MTNS THROUGH
SUNSET. THE COVERAGE WON/T BE GREAT...AND I/VE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS WELL AS THE NE GA AND SC MTNS.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN RETAINED OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT
AND THE NRN UPSTATE WHERE THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN HIGHER CAPES INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING AS NAM DELTA THETA-E VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 25
DEG...WHICH IS WELL IN THE MICROBURST RANGE. THE 12 UTC WET BULB
ZERO AT GSO WAS AROUND 10 KFT...SO THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL WITH THE FATTER CONVECTIVE CORES.

ON TUE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT SHEAR AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE FA WILL BE DRY AND HOT. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S WILL BE RULE
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. HENCE...HOT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT A STRONG DIURNAL SIGNAL IN DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
ALSO...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ARE PORTRAYING DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL CIN.
HENCE...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED
MOUNTAIN AREAS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOONS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED COVERAGE. A MOS BLEND YIELDS MAX TEMPS OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT REMAINING THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THROUGH SAT. BY SUNDAY...
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
HENCE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRI AND SAT. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXITS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE QUITE WARM ON MON BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
THE MAIN RESULT. THE WILD CARD FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY
SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD NOT AFFECT OUR AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NE THROUGH LATE AFTN. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SE AND
THEN SW BY TUESDAY...THOUGH THE SPEEDS SHOULD BE WELL UNDER 10 KTS.
STILL EXPECTING THAT TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL STAY WEST OF THE
AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NE THROUGH LATE AFTN. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SE AND
THEN SW BY TUESDAY...THOUGH THE SPEEDS SHOULD BE WELL UNDER 10 KTS.
SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW...CB/S HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
KAVL...KGSP AND KGMU WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
EXIST. IF KAVL GETS A TSTM...THEN THERE WILL BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
OF SOME DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ABOVE AVG TEMPS...EXPECT ISOLD
DIURNAL TSTM THREAT. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY MTN
VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-509-SCZ001>003-071915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
313 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL AREAS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-
501>508-510-SCZ004>014-019-071915-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
313 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
AREAS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CHERRYVILLE        35.40N 81.40W
06/05/2011                   GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

NCZ053-065-062000-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
337 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLETCHER...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  HENDERSONVILLE...
  ETOWAH...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8235 3521 8245 3524 8261 3530 8262
      3535 8268 3536 8268 3553 8255

HG

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