Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR 0000 UTC UPDATE...CONVECTION COVERAGE LOOKS TO HAVE PEAKED...AND
SHUD BE ON A DECREASING TREND. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE CWA AND WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE OVERALL HINTING AT LINGERING CHC FOR ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET ACRS MAINLY THE NC
PIEDMONT. BLENDED THE 20Z HRRR FOR POPS (THE 21Z RUN IS QUITE
DIFFERENT). SO ANOTHER UPDATE WILL MADE IN AN HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUD MUCH OF THE NITE AND
MOIST CONDITIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ATMOS BECOMES UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN PLACE...ATMOS APPEARS TO BE CAPPED ACROSS THE NRN CWFA.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE NE GA...UPSTATE AND THE
WRN MTNS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THESE AREAS. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS
THE SE CONUS DURING THE SHORT RANGE. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH
MAINTAINING A CLOSED 588 DM HIGH ACROSS MIDDLE TN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EAST TO THE TN/NC BORDER BEGINNING MID DAY TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THERE IS TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE OP MODELS WRT TO A SE/WARD
DIVING S/W ON THE FRONT END OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO WARRANT MUCH
CONCERN....BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVEC IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATER TUE WITH COLD POOL ORGANIZATION PUSHING
TSTMS INTO THE PIEDMONT INTO THE LATE EVENING. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN OUTSIDE THE NC MTNS WITH THE MLVLS REMAINING TOO
WARM...HOWEVER HIGH AMOUNTS OF ELCAPE COULD BE REALIZED IF AN
ORGANIZED MCS GETS GOING ACROSS THE NC MTNS. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
THE ISOL RANGE FOR TUE EVENING...BUT THIS COULD BE SITUATION TO
WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. ON WED...THE UPPER HIGH AND
STRONG NVA WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE CWFA AND IT WILL BE
LESS LIKELY FOR ANYTHING BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR MOUNTAIN TOP
CONVECTION FIRING UP. POPS WERE MAINTAINED RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
FOR WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WILL REACH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ABOUT 10 ABOVE FOR TUE AND EVEN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
HOTTER ON WED. MINS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR
AREA. A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VERY BUSY EVENING SO FAR WITH CONVECTION ALL
OVER THE PLACE. STILL SOME INSTBY AND MORE ISOLD STORMS ACRS
PORTIONS OF NC...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTH OF AN
KAND...KSPA...KCLT LINE. GIVEN STILL SOME THUNDER NEAR KCLT...KHKY
AND KAND AT 00Z...WILL KEEP CB IN FOR FIRST HOUR OR SO. TSTM
COVERAGE SHUD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU REST OF EVE WITH JUST DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LGT WND. MANY OF THE
SITES HAVE GOTTEN RAIN...SO COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR DAYBREAK.
ALREADY ADDED MVFR VSBY FOR KCLT AND KHKY DUE TO RAIN...AND KAVL
JUST BECAUSE CROSSOVER TEMPS ABOVE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALL
SITES SHUD BE VFR BY 14Z WITH CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED LGT
WND...FAVORING A NELY DIR. CONVECTION MON AFTN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS WIDESPREAD...SO NO CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO AN ISOLATED DIURNAL TSTM THREAT MON AFT THRU
THU WITH RIDGING ALOFT. MTN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-062000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
353 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WITH THESE
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

NCZ049-050-505-060015-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
731 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 731 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CELO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURNSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUSICK...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3582 8197 3581 8199 3577 8193 3572 8201
      3569 8204 3563 8223 3586 8235 3597 8214

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCADENVILLE             35.26N 81.08W
06/05/2011                   GASTON             NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND
            MCADENVILLE...MANY BLOCKING ROADWAYS. ONE TREE IS ALSO
            DOWN AT MCADENVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. MUCH OF THE DAMAGE
            IS ALONG HW-7.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             4 S BELTON              34.47N 82.50W
06/05/2011  E1.00 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLATTENED CORN

&&

07

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