Severe Thunderstorm Warning 664, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

758 
WWUS52 KGSP 022207
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCC045-161-SCC021-083-022230-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0664.000000T0000Z-110902T2230Z/
CLEVELAND NC-CHEROKEE SC-SPARTANBURG SC-RUTHERFORD NC-
607 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG...NORTHERN
CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF BOILING SPRINGS NC...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
GAFFNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARL...
COWPENS...GROVER AND BLACKSBURG

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH. THESE
WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR OFFICE BUILDING. AVOID ROOMS THAT MAY BE
DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES. IF DRIVING...PULL OVER IN A CLEAR AREA AWAY
FROM LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 8132 3516 8134 3517 8136 3514 8140
      3495 8197 3519 8200 3519 8197 3525 8196
      3528 8187 3533 8177 3537 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 332DEG 26KT 3517 8168

$$

MCAVOY

030 
WWUS52 KGSP 022229
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCC045-161-SCC021-083-022238-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0664.000000T0000Z-110902T2230Z/
CLEVELAND NC-CHEROKEE SC-SPARTANBURG SC-RUTHERFORD NC-
629 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG...NORTHERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN CLEVELAND
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...THOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT 
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST CHEROKEE COUNTY FOR 
ANOTHER 15 TO 20 MINUTES.

LAT...LON 3517 8132 3516 8134 3517 8136 3514 8140
      3495 8197 3519 8200 3519 8197 3525 8196
      3528 8187 3533 8177 3537 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 332DEG 26KT 3504 8159

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LABOR DAY AND STALL OUT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST...AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS SOUTHERN NC MTN
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE NEVERTHELESS BEEN PULLED A LITTLE SOUTH TO
THE I-85 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS ANYTHING
DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO THAT AREA WILL HAVE STRONG
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH
OVER THE REGION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ALSO VERY HIGH...ESP OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH LATE EVENING...AFTER WHICH A WARM NIGHT IS
EXPECTED...OWING TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THE AREA...AS
IT WILL BE /UNDER ASSAULT/ FROM ALL SIDES...FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND T.S. LEE...AND TO THE EAST DUE TO WEAKENING UPPER
LOW. WITH RESULTANT LOWERING THICKNESSES AND DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW...MAXES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERSISTING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESP ALONG THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT...WHERE THE USUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TS
LEE IN THE W GULF...AND HIGH PRES OFF THE E COAST WILL PUT THE CWA
IN LGT S FLOW SUN. AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN FROM THE NW...AND WITH MOISTURE SURGING N AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
EXPECT CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS EARLY IN THE DAY...SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE AFTN. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCRSNG CLOUDS...LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS NEAR AVG SUN AFTN. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE MTNS SUN NIGHT...INCRSNG S WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF SLOWS DOWN MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVG OVER THE CWA FROM THE SW BUT THE SFC FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG LL UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE AND DEEP MOISTURE
HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH PERIODS OF MDT RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
BELOW AVG MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE MON NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA TUE WHILE MOISTURE FROM TD13 CONTINUES TO SURGE UP FROM THE
GULF ON INCREASING S FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT MDT TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. ON WED MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER TROF MOVG E WITH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH TS LEE MOVG SLOWLY N
TOWARD CNTRL TN AS IT FILLS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN DEEP...
MOIST S FLOW SO KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THRU THE
DAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT GFS IS FASTER BRINGING DRYER AIR IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON DEEP DRYING WED NIGHT-THU
AND HELD ON TO CHC POPS THU WITH A SLIGHT CHC ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW AVG THRU FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND KHKY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING QUITE STRONGLY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND FHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS NOT ESPECIALLY HEALTHY...SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DOESNT SEEM IMMINENT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. DUE TO A WEAK LEE TROUGH...WINDS
ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN AT 5 KT OR LESS. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO MID-
EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST PRIOR TO
12Z.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING ONE CELL JUST A FEW MILES
EAST OF KAVL. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A CB AT KAVL...ENDING
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST NEAR
THE UPSTATE TERMINALS...SO NO CB GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN INSISTING ON DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KAVL TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO PESSIMISTIC
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH KAVL VISBY. WE HAVE OPTED TO TAKE
CONDITIONS TO 2SM FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR THE UPSTATE TERMINALS...
REDUCED VISBY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IT ATTM.

OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND HAZE. ON MONDAY...MVFR AND IFR WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FROM ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES
OR HIGHER 85 TIMES THIS YEAR AS OF SEPTEMBER 2. THIS BREAKS THE
RECORD FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HAS
REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A YEAR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OUT OVER THE AREA AS TROPICAL STORM LEE LINGERS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING...ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARIDNG THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN SO THE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BILTMORE FOREST         35.53N 82.54W
09/02/2011                   BUNCOMBE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HARD ROAD AND ON VANDERBILT ROAD. HAIL SIZE
            OF QUARTERS. REPORTED BILTMORE FOREST PD.

0302 PM     HAIL             BILTMORE FOREST         35.53N 82.54W
09/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT BY BILTMORE FOREST PD.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
09/02/2011                   HENDERSON          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LAKEWOOD ROAD. DIME SIZE HAIL AT RADIO
            STATION.

&&

TBENTHAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ505-506-022015-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OLD FORT
  AND MARION.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3554 8210 3563 8223 3576 8207 3568 8195

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ505-022045-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
419 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 414 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLD FORT...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OLD FORT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3563 8206 3562 8206 3552 8213 3552 8215
      3559 8228 3567 8223

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ056-069-022130-
CATAWBA-LINCOLN-
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VALE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3562 8134 3545 8136 3545 8147 3554 8151
      3555 8151 3556 8152 3557 8153 3561 8151
      3563 8148

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ068-022145-
CLEVELAND-
521 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGSTOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SHELBY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHELBY...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8152 3520 8144 3519 8177 3537 8170
      3545 8169

MCAVOY