Severe Thunderstorm Warning 660, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

163 
WWUS52 KGSP 021912
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCC021-021945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0660.000000T0000Z-110902T1945Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR I-26 AT I-40...OR 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8264 3553 8254 3545 8252 3543 8254
      3545 8255 3543 8258 3544 8261 3544 8263
      3546 8267 3545 8271 3546 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 095DEG 7KT 3554 8261

$$

MCAVOY

488 
WWUS52 KGSP 021928
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCC021-021938-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0660.000000T0000Z-110902T1945Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3560 8264 3553 8254 3545 8252 3543 8254
      3545 8255 3543 8258 3544 8261 3544 8263
      3546 8267 3545 8271 3546 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 095DEG 7KT 3554 8265

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LABOR DAY AND STALL OUT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST...AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS SOUTHERN NC MTN
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE NEVERTHELESS BEEN PULLED A LITTLE SOUTH TO
THE I-85 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS ANYTHING
DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO THAT AREA WILL HAVE STRONG
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH
OVER THE REGION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ALSO VERY HIGH...ESP OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH LATE EVENING...AFTER WHICH A WARM NIGHT IS
EXPECTED...OWING TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THE AREA...AS
IT WILL BE /UNDER ASSAULT/ FROM ALL SIDES...FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND T.S. LEE...AND TO THE EAST DUE TO WEAKENING UPPER
LOW. WITH RESULTANT LOWERING THICKNESSES AND DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW...MAXES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERSISTING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESP ALONG THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT...WHERE THE USUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TS
LEE IN THE W GULF...AND HIGH PRES OFF THE E COAST WILL PUT THE CWA
IN LGT S FLOW SUN. AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN FROM THE NW...AND WITH MOISTURE SURGING N AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
EXPECT CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS EARLY IN THE DAY...SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE AFTN. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCRSNG CLOUDS...LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS NEAR AVG SUN AFTN. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE MTNS SUN NIGHT...INCRSNG S WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF SLOWS DOWN MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVG OVER THE CWA FROM THE SW BUT THE SFC FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG LL UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE AND DEEP MOISTURE
HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH PERIODS OF MDT RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
BELOW AVG MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE MON NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA TUE WHILE MOISTURE FROM TD13 CONTINUES TO SURGE UP FROM THE
GULF ON INCREASING S FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT MDT TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. ON WED MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER TROF MOVG E WITH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH TS LEE MOVG SLOWLY N
TOWARD CNTRL TN AS IT FILLS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN DEEP...
MOIST S FLOW SO KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THRU THE
DAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT GFS IS FASTER BRINGING DRYER AIR IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON DEEP DRYING WED NIGHT-THU
AND HELD ON TO CHC POPS THU WITH A SLIGHT CHC ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW AVG THRU FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND KHKY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING QUITE STRONGLY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND FHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS NOT ESPECIALLY HEALTHY...SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DOESNT SEEM IMMINENT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. DUE TO A WEAK LEE TROUGH...WINDS
ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN AT 5 KT OR LESS. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO MID-
EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST PRIOR TO
12Z.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING ONE CELL JUST A FEW MILES
EAST OF KAVL. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A CB AT KAVL...ENDING
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST NEAR
THE UPSTATE TERMINALS...SO NO CB GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN INSISTING ON DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KAVL TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO PESSIMISTIC
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH KAVL VISBY. WE HAVE OPTED TO TAKE
CONDITIONS TO 2SM FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR THE UPSTATE TERMINALS...
REDUCED VISBY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IT ATTM.

OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND HAZE. ON MONDAY...MVFR AND IFR WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FROM ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES
OR HIGHER 84 TIMES THIS YEAR AS OF SEPTEMBER 1. THIS TIES THE RECORD
FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HAS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER IN ANY YEAR...LAST OCCURRING IN 1954.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
553 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OUT OVER THE AREA AS A PERSISTENT TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...THEREFORE THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ053-064-065-SCZ003-021900-
BUNCOMBE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDNEYVILLE...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLETCHER...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  HENDERSONVILLE...
  FLAT ROCK...
  ETOWAH...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3546 8227 3544 8228 3544 8227 3508 8244
      3518 8272 3553 8246

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ053-021900-
BUNCOMBE-
233 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BILTMORE FOREST...OR 3 MILES SOUTH OF
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AVERY CREEK...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3559 8238 3546 8243 3545 8246 3544 8253
      3542 8254 3544 8255 3543 8258 3544 8261
      3544 8264 3546 8267 3546 8269 3561 8258

MCAVOY