Severe Thunderstorm Warning 594, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN EARLY FLURRY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
THAT GENERATED IN THE BETTER HEATING AREA ALONG
OUTFLOWS...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS REGENERATED CLOSER TO THE BLUE
RIDGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL TRIM PIEDMONT POPS A BIT THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND BOOST VALUES ALONG AND E OF THE ERN ESCARPMENT.
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DWINDLE AS PROFILES BEGIN TO SLOWLY
STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SLOWLY MOVING STORMS WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT UNTIL SUNDOWN.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND E TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
COULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING. AT THE VERY LEAST...A DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. AREAS
OF FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO START EARLY AGAIN AS THE CONTINUED SELY
FLOW ACTS ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OVERALL CONVECTION COULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES IN.
HAVE KEPT POP LIMITED TO SOLID CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST ON
THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DEAMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A WEAK PRECEDING
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH...AND PERHAPS TWO INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP IN THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING MONDAY AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BELOW NORMAL FORM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE TEMPORARILY ON WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH...THEN FALL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...CAUSING THE TROUGH AXIS TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON
TUESDAY...WHILE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COME INTO PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND PUSHING EAST
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. CONVECTION HAS FIZZLED IN THE KCLT
AREA...SO KAVL WILL REMAIN THE MOST AT RISK OF AN EARLY EVENING TSTM
BEFORE PROFILES STABILIZE. WILL KEEP A CB MENTION AT ALL SITES FOR
NOW. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOG
IS LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD MORNING...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KAVL. FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN EARLY WITH THE CONTINUED MOISTURE AND SE
UPSLOPE FLOW. DID NOT MENTION ANY CB FOR SAT...BUT IT WILL BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT.

OUTLOOK...TSTM CHANCES INCREASE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG/TJB
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1106 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1106 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW MOCKSVILLE        35.87N 80.64W
08/11/2011                   DAVIE              NC   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST ONE LARGE TREE DOWN IN THE DAVIE ACADEMY ROAD
            AREA ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER LARGE BRANCHES. THIS
            LOCATION IS JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NCZ053-122215-
BUNCOMBE-
529 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM EDT...

AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEICESTER...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODFIN...
  I-26 AT I-40...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3554 8245 3544 8273 3568 8281 3573 8269
      3573 8267 3574 8267 3576 8261

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
632 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NCZ053-065-122315-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
632 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SKYLAND...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLETCHER...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  EDNEYVILLE...
  HENDERSONVILLE...
  FLAT ROCK...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3560 8234 3536 8228 3532 8231 3528 8235
      3525 8235 3524 8236 3523 8235 3520 8236
      3520 8238 3521 8239 3519 8243 3517 8254
      3555 8262

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCZ002-003-005-006-122330-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-
640 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND WESTERN
GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUMPKINTOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF PICKENS...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARIETTA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3491 8278 3508 8275 3508 8274 3510 8272
      3510 8268 3509 8241 3483 8244

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NCZ510-SCZ003-006-007-122330-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
648 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF GOWENSVILLE...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE ROBINSON...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3492 8225 3514 8242 3519 8234 3519 8232
      3520 8228 3520 8226 3524 8228 3526 8225
      3520 8204

ARK