Severe Thunderstorm Warning 593, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

599 
WWUS52 KGSP 121600
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1200 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCC059-087-121630-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0593.000000T0000Z-110812T1630Z/
LAURENS SC-UNION SC-
1200 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION AND EASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...

AT 1154 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JOANNA
AND SEDALIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8206 3459 8187 3458 8187 3459 8186
      3468 8167 3453 8163 3446 8169 3444 8173
      3436 8178 3435 8181 3433 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 257DEG 7KT 3443 8188

$$

07

318 
WWUS52 KGSP 121628
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1228 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCC059-087-121638-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0593.000000T0000Z-110812T1630Z/
LAURENS SC-UNION SC-
1228 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION AND EASTERN
LAURENS COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM
EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3450 8206 3459 8187 3458 8187 3459 8186
      3468 8167 3453 8163 3446 8169 3444 8173
      3436 8178 3435 8181 3433 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 257DEG 7KT 3444 8182

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST WEAKLY FORCED
UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THIS ISOLATED TO LOW SCT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS CAP ERODES. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF COVERAGE WILL REACH LIKELY...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WHERE THE BULK SHEAR
IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AT LEAST MODERATE.
THEREFORE...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH WIND
DAMAGE BEING THE MAIN THREAT. UPDATED CONDITIONS FOR THESE TRENDS
BUT LEFT HIGHS ALONE GIVEN THE WARM START AND FCST NEAR NORMAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS SFC HI MOVES OFFSHORE...LOW LEVEL E FLOW
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES SHOULD KEEP BKN CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA TODAY. STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUN/HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOS
THIS AFTN FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...THEN MOVE E
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU THE LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR AVG.
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH COOLING THIS EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN TONIGHT WITH OCNL BKN LOW CLOUDS AND LOW TEMPS AROUND
AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE (ESP FOR
AUGUST)...AS HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...CULMINATING IN PASSAGE OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH/ACTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL SUMMER DAY...
WITH CONVECTION TIED LARGELY TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
HOWEVER...THERE/S REASON TO BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE OF PM CONVECTION
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...ESP OVER OUR NC ZONES. THE NAM AND THE GFS
DEPICT AN AXIS OF DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BOTH MODELS RESPOND WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH USUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS OVER THE MTNS WILL LEAD ME
TO FORECAST 50 POPS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST
INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID/UPPER FORCING
BEGINS TO IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY BY LATE SAT EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PASSING A LEAD...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT
MAX ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AS A
RESULT...A RATHER INTENSE BAND OF PRECIP IS DEPICTED AS TRAVERSING
THE AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED. GIVEN THE SITUATION (HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT/DECENT SHEAR PROFILES/NICELY FORCED BUT SLOWLY
EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN)...I WOULD SAY THAT IT/S QUITE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE MORE THAN ONE BAND/BLOB OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SAT EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING
OF ALL THIS IS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN ATTM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD...SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD
THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY (JUST EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWFA)...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME (NOT TO MENTION
DEVELOPING NW FLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TENN BORDER). WE WILL GENERALLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...AS ACTIVE AS THE SHORT TERM WILL BE...THE
MEDIUM RANGE IS SETTING UP AS ITS POLAR OPPOSITE. MUCH DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND INCREASINGLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ACTUALLY BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD YIELD A RETURN TO NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z...EVEN AT
KAVL. LOOK FOR ISOLD SHWRS THIS MRNG...MAINLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT. LGT NE WINDS WILL SWING MORE E AT 6-8KT THIS
AFTN. ANOTHER CHC OF TSTMS AFTER 19-20Z SO CB IS CARRIED ALL
TERMINALS. INCLUDED MVFR FOG SAT MRNG.

OUTLOOK...CHANCE TSTMS INCREASES SAT-SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
EXPECT DRIER WEATHER MON-WED.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1106 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1106 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S UNION               34.65N 81.62W
08/11/2011                   UNION              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            POWER LINES DOWN AT SARDIS RD AND OLD BUNCOMBE RD. TREE
            ALSO DOWN ON OLD BUNCOMBE RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S UNION               34.64N 81.62W
08/11/2011                   UNION              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON LEE CEMETARY RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ZHARGROV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1117 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCZ012-013-121600-
LAURENS-UNION-
1117 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LAURENS AND WESTERN
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

AT 1115 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SEDALIA...
  LAURENS...JOANNA AND CLINTON.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3437 8205 3455 8209 3460 8189 3459 8187
      3458 8187 3461 8185 3464 8173 3446 8169
      3444 8173 3439 8176

07