Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ATOP THE REGION FOR SUNDAY BUT GIVE
WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A CONVECTIVE WATCH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE TOR WATCH REMAINS FOR THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH
A NEW SEVERE WATCH FARTHER TO THE SE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POTENT UPSTREAM MCV OVER THE OH
VALLEY...WITH A STRONG MCC AHEAD OF IT. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IN THE VERY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS. LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY AROUND 3000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL DEWPOINT RECOVERY IS LIKELY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. FORCING IS BETTER
NORTH THAN SOUTH THROUGH THE PM HOURS...BUT HEALTHY SRN TIER POPS
WILL BE NEEDED AS OUTFLOWS DEVELOP. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CIN TO BE
OVERCOME IN THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
BE QUITE STRONG WHEN REALIZED. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 12 K
FT...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES WILL
MAKE FOR A ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STORM CORES TO 22 OR 23 KFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL...AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WARM ADVECTION THE STRONGEST IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE HALF. THE BEST LATE EVENING POPS WILL
BE FEATURED THERE AS THE MCV MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS RECEIVING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE MILD SIDE DESPITE THE SFC FRONT SAGGING BACK
TO THE SW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD SHARPLY OVER THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES UNDER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE A VERY WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
PLUME OF RICH THETA E AIR IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUN AFTN...BUT A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO FIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 215 PM SATURDAY...LARGER SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT A ROUND OF FRONTAL BAND PCPN WILL AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...JUST LIKE WHAT WAS FCST
YESTERDAY...TSTM MAGNITUDE IS QUESTIONABLE...WITH THE 09 UTC SREF
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG STILL VERY LOW.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENUF TO DEVELOP BREEZY CONDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND DESPITE ENCROACHING CLOUDS...ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ON TAP. ENCROACHING DRY SLOT TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH PCPN CHANCES DESPITE AXIS OF MID-LVL WAVE NOT TRANSLATING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WILL SHOOT FOR
INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO...ALBEIT NEAR
5 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENUF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12 UTC OP GFS AND THE LATEST HPC EXTENDED PROGS IN DEPICTING
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WX. THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF TAP
AHEAD OF ENCROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR THURSDAY...BUT
WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ESSENTIALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY.

IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT DEGREE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM GETS WRAPPED UP AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE ATTENDANT MODERATELY FORCED COLD FRONT WILL
STEADILY ENCROACH AS WELL AND IT/S PROBABLE THAT THE MILD AND
MOISTENING AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR DAILY TSTM CHANCES IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM THREATENING
KCLT. SHOWERS MAY FILL IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE INTERIM...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA NOW LIKELY STARTING AROUND 21Z. CONVECTION
WITH THE PASSING UPPER WAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK FRONT SHOULD BRING MVFR
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
CIRCA 14Z WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE ONCE AGAIN.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH TSRA INCREASING AT THE SC TAF
SITES MAINLY AROUND 21Z. VFR LEVEL CB CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SW THROUGH EVENING. A PUSH FROM THE NE IS AGAIN
EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DIPS BACK TO THE SW...BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY KHKY AND KAVL...AND
POSSIBLY FLIRT WITH THE UPSTATE SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK....STRONGER RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY. SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAY
ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY. DRIER HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TUE AND
WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
250 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-101900-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
250 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 113 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             3 ESE MARION            35.66N 81.96W
04/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EXIT 86 ON I-40

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
422 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 SW MARION             35.64N 82.04W
04/09/2011  E2.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WFO RNK RELAYED REPORT OF EGG SIZED HAIL AT MILE MARKER
            81 ON I-40.

&&

BSH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             3 SW CASAR              35.48N 81.66W
04/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   34.89N 82.99W
04/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             4 SE LAWNDALE           35.38N 81.50W
04/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&