Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

916 
WWUS52 KGSP 090649
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

NCC011-121-199-090715-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110409T0715Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
249 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EDT
FOR YANCEY...MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES...

AT 244 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR POPLAR...OR NEAR ERWIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RAMSEYTOWN...BULADEAN...BURNSVILLE...BAKERSVILLE...BANDANA...
LEDGER...MICAVILLE...CELO...INGALLS...CROSSNORE...SPRUCE PINE...MOUNT
MITCHELL STATE PARK AND BUSICK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 8215 3611 8212 3612 8206 3597 8181
      3600 8190 3595 8196 3589 8198 3587 8200
      3588 8203 3586 8204 3583 8213 3576 8217
      3570 8226 3600 8248 3610 8239 3614 8225
      3617 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 318DEG 39KT 3608 8229

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN SATURDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE 06 UTC UPDATE I TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT OVER THE NRN PART
OF THE FA AND ADDED SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THE NRN TWO
TIERS OF ZONES. OTHER TRENDS LOOK GOOD...THOUGH TEMPS ARE STILL
STAYING UP AND WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AGAIN SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEPER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE FAR S
APPALACHIANS. STILL COULD SEE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAKE IT INTO THE NE
CWA THRU ABOUT 2 AM SO HELD ON TO CHC POPS FOR NE ZONES. TEMPS ARE
SLOW TO COOL THIS EVE SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS THERE AS WELL. REST OF
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OVERNIGHT...THE SHALLOW FRONT TO THE N IS FORECAST BY GFS AND NAM TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT SOMEWHERE. WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE
STAGE WILL BE SET ON SAT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES AGAIN POOLING TO NEAR 1000J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD
INITIATE CONVECTION UPSTREAM ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ADVECT OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...WILL SHOW
SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. A MOS
BLEND FOR TEMPS INDICATES A VERY WARM DAY ON SAT WITH MID 80S
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT COOLER FOOTHILLS/NC PIEDMONT
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS ON SUNDAY EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE THREAT. WILL PLAN ON MAKING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED WARM FCST WHICH IS ABT 15 TO 18 DEG F ABOVE CLIMO. THE 12
UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
PLAINS COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...SO THE DRY AND MILD FCST WILL
STRETCH INTO MONDAY MORNING.

LARGER SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF ENCROACHING POS TILT L/WV TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND A ROUND OF FRONTAL BAND
PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE DURING THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT...TSTM MAGNITUDE
IS QUESTIONABLE...WITH THE 09 UTC SREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST
1000 J/KG VERY LOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENUF IN ADVANCE OF
FRONT...WHERE BREEZY CONDS WILL BE FCST AND DESPITE ENCROACHING
CLOUDS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 210 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST TUE
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
DECENT AGREEMENT IS HAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
HIGH INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH WED...HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DISSIMILAR ENOUGH TO MENTION. THE 12Z GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER FLAT
RIDGE...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED ECMWF CONTINUES WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS THE ECMWF HAS A WARMER MODIFICATION
OF THE LLVL AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES. A GRADUAL WARM UP EACH DAY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS S/LY BY THU. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE
IS HAD IN THE NEXT SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY FRI
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STILL CLOSING OFF THE
UPPER LOW...SLOWING DOWN CYCLOGENESIS AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
FLUX. SO...POPS HAVE BEEN BLENDED UP A BIT WITH THEN LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NC MTNS WHERE
THE BEST ISENTROP LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE AIRFIELD AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THE TDWR SHOWS A SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES ABOUT TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. THESE WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TURBULENCE AND
ARE OFTEN AN AVIATION HAZARD. SO LOOK FOR ERRATIC FLOW THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SCT
TSTMS WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AIRFIELD WITH THE FRONT. I THINK THEY
WILL MAKE IT...BUT NOT TIL 8 OR 9 UTC. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTN. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
TSTMS THIS AFTN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.

ELSEWHERE...THE BACK DOOR FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NRN PART OF THE UPSTATE AROUND SUNRISE. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AT KHKY IFR IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF TSTM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...AND EVEN THIS MORNING UP IN NC.
TEMPOS WILL BE ADDED AS FORECAST SKILL DICTATES...BUT WITH WEAK
FORCING...IT WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN TIMING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
OUT.

OUTLOOK...SOME FOG RESTRICTIONS EARLY SUN. A MON NIGHT COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TUE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1213 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-
510-SCZ001>014-019-100415-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1213 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-508-100415-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
1213 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWLAND TO HICKORY...
CHARLOTTE AND MONROE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS
REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.