Severe Thunderstorm Warning 465, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE
LINGERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND UNSETTLED...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 2030Z...FCST UPDATE TO FOCUS ON INCREASED TSTM PROBABILITIES INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WIDESPREAD NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
ACTIVITY PROPAGATES ENEWARD. COLD POOL AIDED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INTO NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE WHERE
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE SEEN WITHIN
CLUSTERS...LEWPS AND BOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT MOISTURE BAND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS FASTER. ACTUALLY THE
SREF IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS...SO THIS GIVES SOME SUPPORT
UTILIZING THE FASTER GFS TIMING.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...INSTABILITY RAMPING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LAPS CAPES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
1500-2000J RANGE...EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS.
MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARW DEVELOP WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH DCAPES OVER 1000J CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING LIKE TUE EVENING.
APART FROM THE INSTABILITY CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE GFS DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MS AT MID AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE 02Z-08Z TIMEFRAME. HENCE
WILL MAINTAIN RATHER ROBUST POPS TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OVER WESTERN AREAS. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. BEST
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING OVER THE UPSTATE SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS DRYING THINGS OUT
LATE. CAN'T RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. MAX
TEMPS ON THU WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS USING A MOS BLEND
APPROACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE TROF. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...THE UPPER TROF WILL LIFT TO THE NE AND
DEAMPLIFY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER EAST.

LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST
AREA FROM THE WEST THURS AND THURS NIGHT AND THEN STALL OUT AS IT
REACHES THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST TO SWLY UNTIL
SATURDAY AND KEEP SOME FAIRLY DECENT LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
THAT COUPLED WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THE
UPPER LVL SUPPORT FROM THE H5 TROF AND A DECENT LOW LVL JET IN THE
RANGE OF 30 TO 40KTS...SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SH
AND TS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE. I ADVERTISE A SOLID CHANCE FOR SH AND TS FROM APPROX 12Z
ONWARD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NC MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST
OF THE CWFA IN A SLIGHT SVR RISK THRU 12Z SAT...AND I AM THINKING
THAT THE NC MTS WILL HAVE A HIGHER OVERALL RISK COMPARED TO THE LOWER
TERRAIN ON FRI.

ON SATURDAY...THE FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE
AS THE UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER SHWV ENERGY ON SAT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY CONVECTION. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS HAS A SHWV APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF...CMC...AND NAM12 DONT HAVE THE FEATURE APPROACHING UNTIL
EARLY SUN. OVERALL...THE LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES
DURING THE DAY AS INSTABILITY GROWS...HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LVL
SUPPORT DWINDLES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. HAVE SOLID CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...WITH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION LESS LIKELY THAN FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER JET MAXIMA WILL PASS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. THIS WILL WARRANT SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND
IT COULD ARRIVE IN WRN MTN LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...DEPENDING
ON THE SHORTWAVE TIMING.

THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE TUE THROUGH WED...WITH WEAK AND HARD TO TIME
SHORTWAVES LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION...OR AT LEAST THE NRN TIER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MORE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION. MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS VICINITY THE AIRFIELD. HENCE INCLUDED A CB INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THU MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT A LOW VFR CLOUD CEILING TO
CONTINUE. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE AIR FIELD
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,. HENCE ALL
AIRPORTS GET A CB MENTION. WEAK FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE BAND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ALL AIR FIELDS COULD SEE AN OVERNIGHT SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MVFR FOG RESTRICTION WILL
OCCUR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH/LG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-232145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ082-232145-
UNION NC-
539 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

NCZ504>506-508-222330-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
641 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BURKE...NORTHERN
RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUGAR HILL...OR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THERMAL CITY...
  GLENWOOD...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3559 8157 3556 8167 3558 8169 3556 8169
      3543 8209 3548 8212 3553 8208 3552 8214
      3559 8219 3582 8170

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW WESTMINSTER        34.70N 83.13W
06/22/2011                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ON POWER LINE.

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WALHALLA            34.77N 83.08W
06/22/2011                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W ANDERSON            34.51N 82.72W
06/22/2011  M56 MPH          ANDERSON           SC   ASOS

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANDERSON                34.52N 82.65W
06/22/2011                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND CITY OF ANDERSON.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTRAL                 34.72N 82.78W
06/22/2011                   PICKENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 123.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTWELL                34.35N 82.93W
06/22/2011                   HART               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALL AROUND COUNTY.

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELBERTON                34.11N 82.86W
06/22/2011                   ELBERT             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE

&&

KRENTZ