Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

341 
WWUS52 KGSP 220252
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC025-035-071-097-109-119-159-179-220315-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0458.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
CABARRUS NC-CATAWBA NC-GASTON NC-IREDELL NC-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG 
NC-UNION NC-ROWAN NC-
1052 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN...UNION...MECKLENBURG...EASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHERN IREDELL...NORTHEASTERN GASTON...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND
CABARRUS COUNTIES IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 1051 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TERRELL TO HARRISBURG TO 3 
MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH. THESE
WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR OFFICE BUILDING. AVOID ROOMS THAT MAY BE
DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES. IF DRIVING...PULL OVER IN A CLEAR AREA AWAY
FROM LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8033 3482 8059 3501 8075 3515 8090
      3529 8102 3557 8105 3574 8095 3551 8042
      3542 8034 3519 8050 3517 8044 3518 8037
      3517 8035 3520 8029 3519 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 230DEG 26KT 3559 8099 3533 8067
          3501 8032

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
STALLS AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC. I EXPECT THAT COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 0Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTN WILL MOVE NE TO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WED. AN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW IS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS
AFTN. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF MIXING OUT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 TO 10 KFT...LAPS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SW FLOW AT 30 TO 40 KT BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT
MID LEVELS. STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT...DCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...AND SFC TO MID LEVEL
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP LAPSES OF 30 TO 35 K...55 DBZ CORE HEIGHTS
TO 23 KFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL.

THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW MAY ACTUALLY
BRUSH THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INHIBITION IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY WELL AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH WED AFTN.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH COOLING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW
MAXES TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE ONGOING CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA. I
HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE
REASONABLY WELL IN SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SETTING UP TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROF SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS
AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHOWING AN AREA OF DRYING OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. I HAVE A HARD TIME NOT MENTIONING AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS AS RIDGE TOP STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
ENOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS IN THE PIEDMONT
AND UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH NEAR 90 OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FOR FRIDAY...THE FA WILL BE UNDER A SIMILAR SITUATION ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MOIST
PROFILES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A MUCH STRONG MODEL QPF RESPONSE THAN ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
NEARLY IDENTICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF NOON ON TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST
AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE FAR SW CONUS.
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY RISE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
TROF LIFTS FARTHER NE AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF
MAINTAINING GREATER AMPLIFICATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY DAY 6 WHICH ACTS TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS DEVELOP
NUMEROUS UPPER SHORTWAVES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SFC...THE LOW LVL WLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA FROM THE NORTH AND STALL.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PREDOMINATELY DIURNAL PATTERN OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY/EVENING THROUGH DAY 7 WITH OVERNIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER
SHORTWAVES. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSTMS FIRING OVER THE NC MTNS THIS AFTN COULD LAY DOWN
OUTFLOWS THAT TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
TREND...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT MIXED OUT APPRECIABLY IN THE
PIEDMONT...SO A CB GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AFTER 23Z FOR
THIS LIKELIHOOD. CB CIGS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO HIGH LEVEL
VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS WILL AFFECT
KAVL THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OUTFLOWS FROM THE MTN TSTMS WILL DRIFT OUT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH KHKY TO KGSP PROBABLY THE NEXT MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE TSTMS AFT 22Z. WILL FEATURE CB CLOUD TYPE FOR ALL FOOTHILL TAFS
THIS EVENING. CB CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER LEVEL VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MOS SIGNALS ARE MIXED FOR MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL COMPROMISE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z IN THE MTN VALLEYS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/HG
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1026 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO OUR
OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-056-057-069>072-082-230230-
IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-
1026 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE OF
STORMS HAS A LONG HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COWPENS                 35.02N 81.80W
06/21/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
953 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAULINE                 34.83N 81.87W
06/21/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN DOWN
            ALONG HIGHWAY 56 IN THE PAULINE AREA.

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     LIGHTNING        JONESVILLE              34.84N 81.68W
06/21/2011                   UNION              SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            *** 1 INJ *** LIGHTNING HIT OUTSIDE THE JONESVILLE FIRE
            DEPARTMENT. A PERSON INSIDE THE FIRE DEPARTMENT SUFFERED
            MINOR INJURIES TO THEIR HAND.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

GAZ029-SCZ011-012-019-220300-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
1009 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENWOOD...SOUTHEASTERN
ELBERT...SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHERN LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH
1100 PM EDT...

AT 1003 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD TO
FORTSONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR...
  NINETY SIX...
  LAKE GREENWOOD...
  CROSS HILL...
  COKESBURY...
  JOANNA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3397 8219 3401 8224 3397 8231
      3406 8234 3407 8248 3407 8253 3401 8259
      3396 8257 3398 8266 3397 8281 3400 8289
      3426 8257 3446 8174 3436 8178 3430 8189
      3420 8194 3413 8187 3395 8202

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT MILL               35.01N 80.94W
06/21/2011                   YORK               SC   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HWY 160.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW FORT MILL          34.97N 80.99W
06/21/2011                   YORK               SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS A TREE DOWN AT CHERRY RD AND
            ANDERSON RD. ALSO A TREE DOWN ON UNITY ST IN FORT
            MILL...AND PLEASANT RD- 4 NNW FORT MILL.

&&

LANE