Severe Thunderstorm Warning 395, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPSTREAM MCS OVER ERN TN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH CORE HEIGHTS ALONG THE LINE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
REACH OBJECTIVE SEVERE CRITERIA. KMRX IS SHOWING A WELL ESTABLISHED
AND STRONG COLD POOL/REAR INFLOW JET BEHIND THE LINE...AND IT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
GREAT VALLEY. AS THE STRONG COLD POOL MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE QUITE MIXED AT THIS POINT...POCKETS OF
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF
THE MTNS...INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER DAPE...THE MCS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SURGE EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC NAM NOW HAS BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...WHICH ALSO
BODES WELL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE 15 UTC RUN OF THE WORKSTATION
WRF-ARW SHOWS AN EVEN MORE HIGHLY EVOLVED BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS THE
FA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS THAN IT DID BEFORE...AND STILL
LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE MCS OVER ERN TN. THEREFORE...THIS
SHOULD SOON TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT FOR
THE FA.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE NAM DEVELOPS A 30-40KT LLVL
JET OVER THE FA AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR WEST. THIS POOLS BL DEWPOINTS
OVER 70S DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH I/M UNSURE
HOW STRONG ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV/S WILL CROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY.
THE NAM IMPLIES A GOOD THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WHILE THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH. CONSIDERING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND HOW
SOUTH IT SHOULD MOVE OVERNIGHT...THE TREAT WILL PROBABLY BE ORIENTED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS IMPLIES ON SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN PUTTING US
UNDER THE GUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE CWFA WILL START
THEIR RISE ON MONDAY AS GULF COAST RIDGING POKES NORTH AND EAST.
WITH SOLID LOWER TO MID 90S FCST ACRS JUST ABOUT ALL THE MAJOR
VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH TO INHIBIT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT...IN FACT...ENOUGH MID LVL NW
FLOW EXISTS TO GIVE RISE TO A FEW SVR STORMS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING BLDG UPPER RIDGE
ATOP THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT VERY WEAK FLOW AND WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE THE FCST SNDGS LOOK TO REMAIN
CAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE AND THE GOING SWATH
OF MID TO UPPER 90S MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...THE TREND TOWARD LESS HOT CONDITIONS
COMMENCES ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE SE CONUS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. AS HEIGHTS START TO FALL AND RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE BEGINS AN UPWARD CREEP...WOULD EXPECT TSTM CHANCES TO CLIMB
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES.

CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THURSDAY...AND GIVEN THE PROBABILITY OF INCREASED LARGER
SCALE FORCING...POP WILL BE INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE AND EXPANDED
ACRS THE WHOLE CWFA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING L/WV
TROUGH AXIS TO SET UP ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY BEFORE
LIFTING SOME NEXT SATURDAY. AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION AND ANY
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IS QUESTIONABLE AND
PROBABLY DOUBTFUL. GIVEN THIS...WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN CHANCE POP FOR
DAYS 6-7 ALONG WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCLT...BIG NEWS OF THE DAY IS THE MCS THAT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE MTNS...IT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR STORM PASSAGE IS AROUND 21 UTC. I/M GIVING A 3 HOUR WINDOW OWING
TO DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND A LINGERING PERIOD OF THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
LINE CROSSES...AND WILL BE WSW AHEAD OF IT...AND ERRATIC AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY LASTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MORE. ALSO...SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...THOUGH I HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THAT IN THE TAF YET.

ELSEWHERE...THINKING FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS FOR CLT WITH A WIDESPREAD LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE
LINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG. IN FACT...SHRA AND TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS...BY
WED OR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>007-
191515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RAPIDLY
CROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

THIS A DANGEROUS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TODAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AND PREPARE TO MOVE
INDOORS WHEN THE STORMS APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-191515-
HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RAPIDLY
CROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

THIS A DANGEROUS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TODAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AND PREPARE TO MOVE
INDOORS WHEN THE STORMS APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ033-049-050-181830-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
138 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AVERY...MITCHELL AND YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
HUNTER TO 4 MILES WEST OF ROCKY FORK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN AVERY...MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BULADEAN...RAMSEYTOWN...BAKERSVILLE...BURNSVILLE...BANNER ELK...
NEWLAND...MICAVILLE...LINVILLE...INGALLS AND SPRUCE PINE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3611 8180 3607 8173
      3597 8186 3600 8190 3595 8196 3592 8196
      3583 8213 3570 8226 3598 8251 3610 8239
      3614 8225 3617 8222 3615 8215 3611 8212
      3613 8204 3628 8193 3629 8190

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HAIL             1 SSW BRYSON CITY       35.42N 83.45W
06/18/2011  E0.88 INCH       SWAIN              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL LASTED FOR 3 MINUTES.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE LAKE JUNALUSKA    35.58N 82.95W
06/18/2011                   HAYWOOD            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ACROSS CRAWFORD RD

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW LEICESTER         35.61N 82.71W
06/18/2011                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINES DOWN AND STARTED A FIRE

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE MARSHALL           35.75N 82.63W
06/18/2011                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR FLINT HILL RD AND PANTHER BRANCH RD

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW LEICESTER         35.70N 82.72W
06/18/2011                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN PINEY KNOB RD AND HORSEBACK LANE

&&

CSH