Severe Thunderstorm Warning 414, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

395 
WWUS52 KGSP 182236
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

SCC073-182315-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0414.000000T0000Z-110618T2315Z/
OCONEE SC-
636 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
WESTMINSTER...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SENECA AND FAIR PLAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO 
CAPSIZE EVEN LARGE BOATS. BOATERS ON LAKE KEOWEE SHOULD MOVE TO 
SHORE IMMEDIATELY!

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8314 3482 8305 3482 8290 3479 8288
      3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8287 3464 8283
      3463 8285 3461 8286 3447 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 274DEG 43KT 3466 8300

$$

MCAVOY

418 
WWUS52 KGSP 182302
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
702 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

SCC073-182308-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0414.000000T0000Z-110618T2315Z/
OCONEE SC-
702 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS HAS 
MOVED EAST OF OCONEE COUNTY. MODERATE RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HALF HOUR...BUT THE 
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED IN THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3457 8314 3482 8305 3482 8290 3479 8288
      3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8287 3464 8283
      3463 8285 3461 8286 3447 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 274DEG 43KT 3464 8268

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAPID FIRE UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING TO DEAL WITH CHANGES IN WATCH
CONFIGURATIONS. IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO NE
GEORGIA...THOUGHT IT BEST TO LOCALLY EXTEND SVR TSTM WATCH 500 UNTIL
00Z FOR THE SAV RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WATCH 500 HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. OTHER WATCH OVER THE LAKELANDS WILL CONTINUE. MAJOR
ALTERATIONS TO TEMP TRENDS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCT FOR 10-15 DEG
DROPOFF BEHIND OLD COLD POOL. MORE CHANGES COMING.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSTREAM MCS OVER ERN TN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH CORE HEIGHTS ALONG THE LINE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
REACH OBJECTIVE SEVERE CRITERIA. KMRX IS SHOWING A WELL ESTABLISHED
AND STRONG COLD POOL/REAR INFLOW JET BEHIND THE LINE...AND IT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
GREAT VALLEY. AS THE STRONG COLD POOL MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE QUITE MIXED AT THIS POINT...POCKETS OF
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF
THE MTNS...INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER DAPE...THE MCS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SURGE EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC NAM NOW HAS BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...WHICH ALSO
BODES WELL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE 15 UTC RUN OF THE WORKSTATION
WRF-ARW SHOWS AN EVEN MORE HIGHLY EVOLVED BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS THE
FA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS THAN IT DID BEFORE...AND STILL
LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE MCS OVER ERN TN. THEREFORE...THIS
SHOULD SOON TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT FOR
THE FA.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE NAM DEVELOPS A 30-40KT LLVL
JET OVER THE FA AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR WEST. THIS POOLS BL DEWPOINTS
OVER 70S DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH I/M UNSURE
HOW STRONG ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV/S WILL CROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY.
THE NAM IMPLIES A GOOD THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WHILE THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH. CONSIDERING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND HOW
SOUTH IT SHOULD MOVE OVERNIGHT...THE TREAT WILL PROBABLY BE ORIENTED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS IMPLIES ON SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN PUTTING US
UNDER THE GUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE CWFA WILL START
THEIR RISE ON MONDAY AS GULF COAST RIDGING POKES NORTH AND EAST.
WITH SOLID LOWER TO MID 90S FCST ACRS JUST ABOUT ALL THE MAJOR
VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH TO INHIBIT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT...IN FACT...ENOUGH MID LVL NW
FLOW EXISTS TO GIVE RISE TO A FEW SVR STORMS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING BLDG UPPER RIDGE
ATOP THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT VERY WEAK FLOW AND WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE THE FCST SNDGS LOOK TO REMAIN
CAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE AND THE GOING SWATH
OF MID TO UPPER 90S MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...THE TREND TOWARD LESS HOT CONDITIONS
COMMENCES ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE SE CONUS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. AS HEIGHTS START TO FALL AND RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE BEGINS AN UPWARD CREEP...WOULD EXPECT TSTM CHANCES TO CLIMB
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES.

CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THURSDAY...AND GIVEN THE PROBABILITY OF INCREASED LARGER
SCALE FORCING...POP WILL BE INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE AND EXPANDED
ACRS THE WHOLE CWFA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING L/WV
TROUGH AXIS TO SET UP ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY BEFORE
LIFTING SOME NEXT SATURDAY. AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION AND ANY
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IS QUESTIONABLE AND
PROBABLY DOUBTFUL. GIVEN THIS...WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN CHANCE POP FOR
DAYS 6-7 ALONG WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCLT...BIG NEWS OF THE DAY IS THE MCS THAT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE MTNS...IT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR STORM PASSAGE IS AROUND 21 UTC. I/M GIVING A 3 HOUR WINDOW OWING
TO DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND A LINGERING PERIOD OF THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
LINE CROSSES...AND WILL BE WSW AHEAD OF IT...AND ERRATIC AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY LASTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MORE. ALSO...SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...THOUGH I HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THAT IN THE TAF YET.

ELSEWHERE...THINKING FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS FOR CLT WITH A WIDESPREAD LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE
LINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG. IN FACT...SHRA AND TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS...BY
WED OR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>007-
191515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RAPIDLY
CROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

THIS A DANGEROUS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TODAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AND PREPARE TO MOVE
INDOORS WHEN THE STORMS APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-191515-
HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RAPIDLY
CROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

THIS A DANGEROUS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TODAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AND PREPARE TO MOVE
INDOORS WHEN THE STORMS APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSW SHELBY            35.21N 81.58W
06/18/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES AND LARGE
            LIMBS DOWN NEAR SOUTH POST RD AND HIGHWAY 18.

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST FLAT ROCK          35.28N 82.42W
06/18/2011                   HENDERSON          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES ON NORTH LAKE SUMMIT ROAD. 911
            CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN ALL AREAS OF COUNTY.

&&

TBENTHALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

SCZ005-010-182215-
ANDERSON-GREATER PICKENS-
543 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTRAL...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEMSON...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PIEDMONT...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3464 8283 3470 8287 3473 8287 3481 8277
      3475 8246 3472 8246 3471 8245 3471 8246
      3468 8245 3467 8247 3465 8245 3444 8246

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SE ROCKY BOTTOM         35.05N 82.80W
06/18/2011                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY NEAR US 178 AND ROCKY BOTTOM RD

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NW ANDERSON           34.61N 82.76W
06/18/2011                   ANDERSON           SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND LIMBS DOWN ON BURNS BRIDGE RD AND GREATE RD OFF
            HWY 187, ANOTHER AT FALCONS LANDING OFF ROYAL AMERICAN RD
            AT I-85 AND CLEMSON BLVD.

&&

TBENTHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW WARE SHOALS       34.34N 82.26W
06/18/2011                   GREENWOOD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY ALONG SAM HODGES AND MORGAN RDS

&&

CSH