Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
332 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PLUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES AND THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS KEEP THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA WITH
RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -4 TO -8 SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE MID SOUTH WHILE THE FORECAST STAYS WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN TO REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS
THE AREA...KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. KEPT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY A DIURNAL POP TREND (CHANCE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
PIEDMONT) EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MVFR MAINLY BECAUSE OF CIGS 2-3 KFT AND SOME VSBYS 4-5 MILES IN
SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
AFTER 14Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MVFR MAINLY BECAUSE OF CIGS 2-3 KFT AND SOME VSBYS 4-5 MILES IN
SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
AFTER 14Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AS IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161730-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
118 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-161730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
118 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.