Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 381, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

June 15, 20115 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2011, 5:03 PM EDT for 5 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 57 min. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2011, 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2011, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Swain County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 15, 5:03 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Robbinsville, NC	SHERIFF REPORTED TREES DOWN IN GRAHAM COUNTY.
Jun 15, 5:20 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Sylva, NC	SHERIFF REPORTED TREES DOWN IN NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.
Jun 15, 5:25 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Sylva, NC	NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN SILVA.
Jun 15, 5:25 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Ne Sylva, NC	MULTIPLE TREES DOWN OFF SCOTTS CREEK RD.
Jun 15, 5:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Nw Franklin, XX	PUBLIC REPORT TREES DOWN NEAR MACON COUNTY AIRPORT
Jun 15, 5:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Franklin, NC	MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN FRANKLIN
Jun 15, 5:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Sylva, NC	MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
Jun 15, 5:35 PM EDT	TSTM WND GST 65	Waynesville, NC	RADIO STATION IN WAYNESVILLE REPORTED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 22 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 15, 12:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 227 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -377 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1521 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

451 
WUUS52 KGSP 152103
SVRGSP
NCC075-087-099-113-173-152200-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0381.110615T2103Z-110615T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ROBBINSVILLE...
  HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAYNESVILLE...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SYLVA...
  MACON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLIN...
  SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRYSON CITY...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  STECOAH...OR NEAR ROBBINSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  NANTAHALA LAKE...ALARKA...CHEROKEE...SMOKEMONT...CULLOWHEE...
  WATERVILLE...MAGGIE VALLEY...LAKE JUNALUSKA...CRUSO...CANTON AND
  BALSAM

LAT...LON 3536 8401 3556 8358 3556 8350 3562 8344
      3567 8333 3566 8329 3572 8324 3579 8306
      3577 8298 3579 8296 3574 8296 3574 8293
      3540 8275 3506 8356 3515 8366 3515 8374
      3524 8370 3525 8384 3521 8397 3525 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 268DEG 31KT 3536 8372

$$
SJN

1 follow-up statement

789 
WWUS52 KGSP 152149
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
549 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

NCC099-152159-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0381.000000T0000Z-110615T2200Z/
JACKSON NC-
549 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3536 8401 3556 8358 3556 8350 3562 8344
      3567 8333 3566 8329 3572 8324 3579 8306
      3577 8298 3552 8322 3546 8335 3539 8334
      3511 8360 3515 8366 3516 8374 3523 8369
      3525 8371 3525 8384 3522 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 268DEG 31KT 3537 8323

$$

NCC075-087-113-173-152200-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0381.000000T0000Z-110615T2200Z/
GRAHAM NC-HAYWOOD NC-MACON NC-SWAIN NC-
549 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR SWAIN...MACON...HAYWOOD AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHEROKEE...OR NEAR SYLVA...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WATERVILLE

LAT...LON 3536 8401 3556 8358 3556 8350 3562 8344
      3567 8333 3566 8329 3572 8324 3579 8306
      3577 8298 3552 8322 3546 8335 3539 8334
      3511 8360 3515 8366 3516 8374 3523 8369
      3525 8371 3525 8384 3522 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 268DEG 31KT 3537 8323

$$

SJN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 3:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 3:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
332 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PLUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES AND THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS KEEP THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA WITH
RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -4 TO -8 SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE MID SOUTH WHILE THE FORECAST STAYS WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN TO REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS
THE AREA...KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. KEPT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY A DIURNAL POP TREND (CHANCE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
PIEDMONT) EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MVFR MAINLY BECAUSE OF CIGS 2-3 KFT AND SOME VSBYS 4-5 MILES IN
SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
AFTER 14Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MVFR MAINLY BECAUSE OF CIGS 2-3 KFT AND SOME VSBYS 4-5 MILES IN
SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
AFTER 14Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AS IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 1:18 PM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161730-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
118 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-161730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
118 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 3:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Haywood	30 min
Jun 15, 3:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Haywood, Madison	25 min
Jun 15, 5:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Haywood, Jackson, Macon, Madison, Yancey	38 min
Jun 15, 5:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania	29 min
Jun 15, 6:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Henderson, Polk, Rutherford	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.