Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 1515Z...RIDGETOP CU WAS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE SKY EAST OF THE MTNS REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NRN NC
PIEDMONT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE KY AND NW TN. MESOSCALE
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER CAPES WITHIN THE SFC
TROF AND LITTLE TO NO CIN ACROSS THE MTNS. BASED ON THE SATELLITE
TRENDS AND LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS I EXPECT THAT TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS BETWEEN 16Z TO 17Z WITH ENHANCED CU WITHIN THE
PIEDMONT TROF. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SURGE EAST OF THE
MTNS AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE SFC TROF...PROMOTING SCT TO NUM
SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. THE FORMATION OF COOL POOLS AND
SWEEPING FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXITING THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

CAPE VALUES SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DCAPE VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 1000 J/KG. FZL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 13.5
KFT...PLACING THE 55 DBZ CORE AROUND 25 KFT. LLVL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR PEAKING AROUND 20 M/S.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES WITH K-INDEX IN THE MID 30S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND IN THE HWO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK
CERTAIN...BUT STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT THE FF POTENTIAL...WE WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DRY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT SKY COVER WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN CLEARING SKY COVER AND WEAK CAA LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS COMPLICATED AND
UNSETTLED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG UPPER LOW BUILDS INTO
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED MAX/MIN VORT STREAM
ACROSS THE CWFA WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT ALOFT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUE STILL SHOW LITTLE SBCAPE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE
THE MTNS...ESP THE NAM...BUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND WEIGHTING
PERSISTENCE WILL COUNT ON ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TUE AFTNOON/EVE....HOWEVER STORMS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS OR GENERAL IN NATURE. THE SREF PROBS ARE IN
THE 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WED. MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT WORKING SOUTH
AS TIME PROGRESS. SO...POPS WERE BUMPED UP JUST A BIT TO MAINTAIN
THE SOLID CHANCE WORDAGE. A NEW FEATURE ADVERTISED IN THE OP MODELS
AND THE SREF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG AN
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING CWFA WED. THIS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD BE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A ROUND OF ORGANIZED AND LONG LASTING SEVERE STORMS WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS TUE SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 90 OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND M80S
MTN VALLEYS. ON WED THERE WILL BE A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT N/S...WITH
THE SRN ZONES REACHING NEAR 90 AND THE NRN ZONES PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE THE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS FAIRLY BUSY AND
UNSETTLED. THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOWS ALONG THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE
REGION AND LEAVE IT LANGUISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW
A PROGRESSION OF VORT CENTERS EASTWARD IN THE WNW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...BEGINNING WED NITE AND CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND...
SUGGESTING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE IN THE MCS TRACK FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS
GREATEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. THINK
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER OR STORM AT SOME POINT WED
NITE OR THURSDAY...BUT A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WHEN THE
LIKELIHOOD IS GREATEST WILL KEEP THE POP HELD DOWN TO THE CHANCE
RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
THAT WE SHOULD GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT TO NUM TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF COVERAGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. I
WILL INDICATE CB AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. TSRA SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND LIGHT NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP POST FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS. IT
APPEARS THAT KAVL WILL REMAIN TOO FAR EAST FOR A CEILING...I WILL
INDICATE FEW AT 030. AFTER SUNRISE...LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SO AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE FEWER THAN LAST FEW DAYS.
FROM WEDNESDAY THRU REST OF THE WEEK...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA AND MORNING VALLEY FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

NCZ048-051>053-059-062-063-121845-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MACON-MADISON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-SWAIN-
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SWAIN...HAYWOOD...
JACKSON...NORTHERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF SMOKEMONT...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN SWAIN...HAYWOOD...JACKSON...NORTHERN MACON...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

MAGGIE VALLEY...LAKE JUNALUSKA AND CANTON...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3527 8368 3530 8369 3534 8366 3536 8361
      3542 8359 3562 8341 3567 8334 3566 8330
      3571 8326 3580 8271 3516 8298 3516 8300
      3513 8300 3524 8370

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