Severe Thunderstorm Warning 358, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

756 
WWUS52 KGSP 120110
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
910 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

SCC091-120145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0358.000000T0000Z-110612T0145Z/
YORK SC-
910 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR YORK COUNTY...

AT 907 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROCK HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CATAWBA...

LAT...LON 3482 8089 3482 8147 3485 8146 3490 8148
      3505 8144 3505 8141 3514 8140 3517 8136
      3515 8105 3511 8104 3506 8106 3505 8104
      3511 8094 3507 8090 3495 8086 3484 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 332DEG 6KT 3490 8102

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0000 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE ADJUSTED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEAR KSVH AND KGSP.

AT 225 PM...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE RIDGES WITH SHALLOW CU FIELD EAST OF THE
MTNS. IN ADDITION...AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OVER MIDDLE
KY/TN...TREKKING SOUTHEAST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF THE OUTFLOW WILL
REACH THE CWA. TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO POPULATE THE MTN RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE VALLEYS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT FROM LOCALLY
PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
BECOME COMMON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CIN BECOMES ZERO. AS THE
CASE LATE THIS WEEK...CONVECTION MAY SURVIVE A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
L60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE U60S EAST.

AT 18Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT CAPES RANGED BETWEEN 1500
TO 2500 J/KG. DCAPE VALUES MAY RANGE AROUND 1000 J/KG. FZL SHOULD
RANGE AROUND 13.5 KFT...PLACING THE 55 DBZ CORE HEIGHT AROUND 24.5
KFT. PW SHOULD RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH K-INDEX VALUES IN
THE MID 30S. STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SLOW...INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEVERAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE SVR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK CIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY PULSE STORMS
FROM EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO MULTICELLS WITH QUICKER STORM
MOTIONS. I WILL FORECAST HIGH CHC POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING IN A S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEW ENG LOW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS THE STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE DPVA FIELD...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF SHOW
ONLY MODEST SUPPORT. A TRICKY FORECAST FOR POPS ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AS THE LLVLS WILL BE EXPERIENCING AN INFLUX OF LOWER THEATA/E WHILE
A CA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MTNS
HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SBCAPE AND VERY LITTLE ELCAPE...WHILE CINS REMAIN IN
THE 300-400 J/KG. SO...WITH SUSPECT CONV INSTABILITY AND AN
UNFAVORABLE LLVL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND MINIMAL MOISTURE...THE GRIDS
WILL BE LEFT POP FREE EXCEPT ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4KFT WHERE ISOL
TSTMS WILL POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH MECHANICAL LIFT AND THE UPPER
ENERGY SUPPORT.

ON TUES...THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA HIGH REINFORCES AND RIDGES DEEPER SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE GFS IS ACTIVATING A WARM FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AND THIS
COULD SWING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MTNS FOR A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE
THREAT....HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE LLVL RESPONSE SEEN ON THE MUCH
FURTHER NORTH NAM. SO...WILL KEEP THE GRIDS POP FREE FOR TUE. DEEP
LAYERED FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER AND DEEP NW/LY AS WELL...WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS CONV INITIATION THROUGH THE DAY. MAX AND
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE WITH THE
LOWER THETA/E AIR MIXING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MEAN UPPER LONG WAVE TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST HERE IS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
MANIFEST ITSELF AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN
SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SO...THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING COULD HAVE A SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME.
SUSPECT THAT COVERAGE WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE...BUT THE POP WILL BE LIMITED TO CHANCE FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE US A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
MODULATED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. TEMPS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN NUDGED
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES OWING TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CARRIES NO FOG RESTRICTION AT DAYBREAK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL SET UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA...AND WITH A WELL DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM...CB WILL
BE CARRIED IN THE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
STAY LIGHT FRONT THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE ONLY AGREES ON FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AT DAYBREAK...WHERE MVFR VSBY WILL BE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW ON SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
CHANNELED UPVALLEY FORM THE NW AT KAVL. WINDS SHIFT TO NW IN THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING GUSTY AT KAVL.  CONVECTION WILL FIRE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. CB WILL BE CARRIED
IN ALL TAFS AS THE FRONT PRESENTS A WELL DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR LIFT. RESTRICTIONS ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEVERAL STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
812 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EARL                    35.19N 81.53W
06/11/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR BLACKSBURG RD AND SOUTH POST RD.
            ALSO 0.5 INCH HAIL.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EARL                    35.19N 81.53W
06/11/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR BLACKSBURG RD AND SOUTH POST RD.
            ALSO 0.5 INCH HAIL.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S HICKORY             35.72N 81.33W
06/11/2011                   CATAWBA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE LARGE TREES DOWN ON CATAWBA VALLEY BLVD

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
825 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ057-072-120100-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
825 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 820 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOLD HILL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SALISBURY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

ROCKWELL...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3544 8033 3543 8035 3543 8037
      3559 8044 3563 8026 3558 8020 3555 8020
      3552 8018 3550 8018

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
828 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S GREER               34.85N 82.23W
06/11/2011                   GREENVILLE         SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN AT ROCK RD AND SHOALS RD IN THE PELHAM
            FALLS SUBDIVISION

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE DUNCAN             34.92N 82.11W
06/11/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN AT ROGERS BRIDGE RD AND VICTOR HILL RD

&&

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
844 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ071-072-120130-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
844 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MECKLENBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

AT 841 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF LOWESVILLE...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CORNELIUS...
  DAVIDSON...
  HUNTERSVILLE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3525 8075 3535 8097 3536 8092 3537 8097
      3539 8097 3539 8096 3544 8096 3545 8094
      3548 8095 3551 8089 3548 8063

BSH