Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRIGGERING ALONG OUTFLOWS IN THE HIGH CAPE AND HIGH DCAPE ENVIROMENT
FROM THE SRN NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH MID EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
02Z...THEN TAPERED QUICKLY INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE BY
MIDNIGHT AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL OVER NC DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS DOES NOT REACH NE GA
AND THE UPSTATE...SO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS CONTINUE THERE. SHOULD STILL
BE SOME FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FALLS IN
THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE DRY AIR MASS EDGES
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA FRI. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW DRY CONDITIONS GET. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE TAKEN A MDL BLEND. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE MTNS AND THE UPSTATE/NE GA WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE FRI
AFTERNOON. STILL...THE CAPE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE FORCING TO BREAK ANY CAP.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH CHC POP WEST OF AVL AND THE NE GA/UPSTATE
MTNS...WITH SLIGHT CHC REST OF THE NC MTNS AND WEST OF I-26 IN THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA. SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL ROTATE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS...AN AREA OF NVA COMBINED WITH SOUNDINGS FEATURING VERY WARM
MID LEVELS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE HOSTILE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AS SUCH...I HAVE REMOVED THE
MOUNTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES I INHERITED. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM
BACK UP INTO THE LOW 90S EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NC. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE WEST AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER THAN ON
SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
YOU GO FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...CHANCE
POPS WILL BE ADDED IN THESE AREAS...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LESS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE UPSTATE. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE WEST...UPPER HEIGHTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...LOW 90S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...TO THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION BY THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED TO
OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT
WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST. SMALL POPS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CLOSEST OT THE DEPARTING FRONT...MIGRATING TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUNS SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...EVEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY DRAPED RIGHT
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD...BUT ANY TSTM TRIGGERING THUS
FAR HAS BEEN IN THE CONVERGENT AREAS FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH. WILL
KEEP THE TERMINAL FREE OF CB AND TSTMS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NLY WIND WITH SCT CU AND BKN CI INTO EARLY EVENING. WIND BECOMES
LIGHT NE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CU AND BKN CI. NELY
WIND INCREASES IN SPEED TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN
FROM THE NE. COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS AS MIXING BEGINS. WITH
THE WIND AND DRIER AIRMASS...DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT OF MORNING
BR/HZ. BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID CLOUD CIGS AS
WELL.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH BACKBUILDING
COULD KEEP KAVL UNDER SOME THREAT TOO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY TSTM OUTFLOWS. KHKY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S THIS EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT KAVL OVERNIGHT. FEW TO SCT CUMULUS UNDER SCT TO BKN CI
WILL BE THE RULE AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...DIURNAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-068-505>510-
SCZ001>014-019-031930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
327 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-056-057-069>072-082-501>504-031930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
327 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COWPENS                 35.02N 81.80W
06/02/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OTTO                    35.06N 83.39W
06/02/2011                   MACON              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AROUND OTTO.

0545 PM     HAIL             OTTO                    35.06N 83.39W
06/02/2011  E0.88 INCH       MACON              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

0543 PM     HAIL             2 SE SHELBY             35.27N 81.52W
06/02/2011  E0.75 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL FELL ON SULPHUR SPRINGS ROAD NEAR
            INTERSECTION WITH BOWEN DRIVE.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             GAFFNEY                 35.07N 81.66W
06/02/2011  E0.88 INCH       CHEROKEE           SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             2 W SPARTANBURG         34.94N 81.96W
06/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPARTANBURG             34.94N 81.93W
06/02/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON WINSMITH AVENUE.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             8 ENE LAKE LURE         35.48N 82.08W
06/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG
            WITH SOME GUSTY WIND IN THE SHINGLE HOLLOW AREA.

&&

OUTLAW