Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

647 
WWUS52 KGSP 021857
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

NCC175-SCC045-077-021930-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-110602T1930Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-GREENVILLE SC-PICKENS SC-
257 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSMAN...JONES GAP STATE PARK...TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...CEDAR
MOUNTAIN...ROCKY BOTTOM AND CAESARS HEAD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8253 3498 8284 3527 8289 3532 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 343DEG 4KT 3519 8273

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...NAM 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 8 METERS
LOWER OVER THE NRN ZONES TDA THAN THEY WERE ON WED...AND OVER THE
SRN ZONES...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE
AFTN. THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN ON
WED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THAT SAID...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. 12Z OBSERVED THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
THIS. 12Z GSO RAOB SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN.
HOWEVER...RAOB IS NEARLY STABLE WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MOST OF THE NC FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND NRN
MTNS. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THERE.

WHILE THE NRN ZONES WILL DRY OUT...A WEAK BNDRY WILL POOL MOISTURE
OVER NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS. 12Z FFC RAOB IS
STILL VERY UNSTABLE WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE LOWEST
10KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT
OUR WORKSTATION MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE STRONG RIDGE MOVED IN. THEREFORE
HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NC/SC/NC BORDER...WHICH HIGHER POPS ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND OVER THE WRN UPSTATE. SPC HAS TRIMMED THE
SLIGHT RISK ARE A LITTLE. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTN WILL
PRODUCE MICROBURSTS AS DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE AROUND 30 DEGREES
AND DCAPES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG. FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP AROUND
14KFT...SO MOST OF THE HAIL SHOULD BE SMALL.

ONCE CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING IT WILL BE A FAIR NIGHT WITH AREAS
OF FOG OVER THE MTNS AND WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM THURSDAY...WEAK EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL AID IN DIURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY...LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWFA
WERE TERRAIN LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE NC PIEDMONT LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITHIN THE LINGERING
DRY AIR. ALTHOUGH THE TREND TOWARD LESS HOT CONDS WILL CONTINUE...MAX
TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEG F ABV CLIMO. DESPITE
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FCST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE VERY WEAK. FCST
SNDGS ARE NOT DEFINITIVELY CAPPED...BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RESPONSE IS VERY LIMITED. BASED ON THIS...WILL FEATURE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS. WITH THE LLVL FLOW
ASSUMING A WEAK WESTERLY TENDENCY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...TO THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION BY THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED TO
OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT
WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST. SMALL POPS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CLOSEST OT THE DEPARTING FRONT...MIGRATING TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUNS SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...EVEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT NLY WIND WITH SCT CU AND BKN CI INTO EARLY EVENING.
WIND BECOMES LIGHT NE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CU AND BKN
CI. NELY WIND INCREASES IN SPEED TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NE. COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS AS MIXING
BEGINS. WITH THE WIND AND DRIER AIRMASS...DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT OF
MORNING BR/HZ. BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID CLOUD
CIGS AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...NLY WIND CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NC
SITES...BUT S TO SW WIND DEVELOPS FOR THE SC SITES. GOOD CHANCE OF
TSTMS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KAVL TO KGSP LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT CB MENTION IN THOSE AREAS.
KHKY SHUD REMAIN DRY. TEMPO LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. N TO NE WIND PICKS UP AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK.
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD REACH KHKY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF
THE OTHER STIES. THAT SAID...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
KAVL SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR THERE. WILL LEAVE OTHERS MVFR...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR THO WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
EXPECT BKN CIRRUS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DIURNAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-068-505>510-
SCZ001>014-019-030930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
525 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ENOUGH TO UPROOT TREES AND BRING DOWN
POWERLINES. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES
OR QUARTERS IS EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-056-057-069>072-082-501>504-030930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
525 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             11 NNW CLARKESVILLE     34.76N 83.60W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       HABERSHAM          GA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTS NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

BSH