River Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

370 
WGUS82 KGSP 100049
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
749 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER REMAINING 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-110049-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.110310T0416Z-110312T0448Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0416Z.110310T1800Z.110311T1648Z.NO/
749 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 17.0 FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF MOST OF THE SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER WILL BE OCCUR.  RIVER ROAD WILL 
  HAVE ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER ON IT.

$$

487 
WGUS82 KGSP 101200
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

 .RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER CRESTING 
LATER THAN EXPECTED AND FALLING SLOWER.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-111200-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110312T0200Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0533Z.110310T1800Z.110311T1400Z.NO/
700 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT  6:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.0 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW LATE 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF MOST OF THE SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER WILL BE OCCUR.  RIVER ROAD WILL 
  HAVE ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER ON IT.

$$
PAT

394 
WGUS82 KGSP 110100
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS WORKED ITS WAY FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL START TO FALL SLOWLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...MOTORISTS ARE REMINDED TO NEVER ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS FLOODED ROADS AND NEVER CROSS ROADS BLOCKED BY BARRICADES
OR OTHERWISE INDICATED AS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODWATERS. 

&&

NCC089-175-120100-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110312T1330Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0533Z.110311T0600Z.110312T0130Z.NO/
800 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT 730 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL HOVER AROUND 17 FEET ALL NIGHT
  BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF MOST OF THE SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER WILL OCCUR.  RIVER ROAD WILL 
  HAVE ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER ON IT.

$$

650 
WGUS82 KGSP 111457
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER REMAINING 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-121457-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110312T1648Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0533Z.110311T0900Z.110312T0448Z.NO/
957 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT  9:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* AFTER THE RIVER CRESTED AT 17.17 FEET AT 4 AM THIS MORNING, THE 
  RIVER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY FALL.  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL 
  AND DROP BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 16 FEET BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF MOST OF THE SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER WILL BE OCCUR.  RIVER ROAD WILL 
  HAVE ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER ON IT.

$$

990 
WGUS82 KGSP 112000
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN IS WORKING ITS WAY  
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO GO 
BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-121648-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110312T1648Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0533Z.110311T0900Z.110312T0448Z.NO/
300 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT  2:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE TONIGHT...LIKELY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS 
  IN THE FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF MOST OF THE SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER WILL BE OCCUR.  RIVER ROAD WILL 
  HAVE ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER ON IT.

$$

004 
WGUS82 KGSP 120146
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY  
DOWNSTREAM. THUS...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-121800-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110312T1800Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0533Z.110311T0900Z.110312T0600Z.NO/
846 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT 8:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE JUST 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL PARTS
  OF GROVE BRIDGE AND PLEASANT GROVE ROADS WILL FLOOD. BUILDINGS 
  BETWEEN THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AND HIGHWAY 64 WILL BEGIN TO SEE 
  WATER APPROACH THEM.

$$

416 
WGUS82 KGSP 121128
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

 .RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS WORKED ITS WAY FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-121158-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110312T1300Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.110310T0533Z.110311T0900Z.110312T0555Z.NO/
628 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT  5:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12:55 AM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.2 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS REACHED...FARMFIELDS IN LOW 
  LYING AREAS AND A LOCAL TREE FARM AND GREENHOUSE NEAR GROVE BRIDGE 
  ROAD WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD.  PARTS OF PLEASANT GROVE ROAD WILL BE 
  COVERED WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. VERY MOIST AIR WILL CROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
MORNING. AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHARPENS AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO GET EVEN STRONGER AS IT
CROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WHILE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OFTEN ROBS US OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...IN THIS CASE TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. AS
THE DIVERGENCE MAX CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH...I WOULDN/T
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SRN APPALACHIANS TO REALIZE
EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATER IN THE DAY. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY
THE 00 UTC GFS HAS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT OF THE FA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY...BUT THE PCPN AMOUNTS ARE
STILL IMPRESSIVE...AND IT/S PCPN AXIS IS IN NEARLY THE SAME PLACE.
HPC/S QPF AXIS IS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST...AND I/VE PLACED MY
MAX...AS HAVE SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...ALONG AND A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS HAS REQUIRED PUSHING THE FLOOD
WATCH A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND VERY MOIST NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH UPSTREAM PW/S RUNNING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FLASH
FLOODING MAY BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. I WON/T CHANGE THE WATCH TYPE IN MID STREAM...AND THERE IS
A NEAR CERTAINTY OF ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING...BUT PLEASE BEAR THIS
IN MIND AS I EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY.

AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW SHOULD RIDE RIGHT UP THE I-85 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE AND A WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE FA LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND I THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A LOW TOPPED QLCS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...BUT AS ALWAYS IN THESE HIGH SHEAR SITUATIONS...A BRIEF
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW ECMWF HAS 200 TO 300 J/KG CAPE VALUES OVER
THE SW PART OF THE UPSTATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC WET BULB TEMPS...NAM FORECAST WET BULBS AND OBSERVED
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALL BUT A COUPLE RIDGE TOPS IN AVERY COUNTY
ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS
PCPN BEGINS...AND I/VE REMOVED WINTRY PCPN FROM THE NRN MTNS THIS
MORNING.

STRONG LLVL SELY FLOW WILL INDUCE A MOUNTAIN WAVE AND HELP TRANSPORT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND TO THE GROUND RIGHT ALONG THE TN LINE. I DON/T
SEE THIS BEING A HIGH WIND SITUATION...BUT I HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED
LOW IN ITS BASE WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...THE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
PIEDMONT SECTION OF OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST OF
OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF THE CAPE AND HELICITY WILL BE EAST OF
OUR AREA AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH EXISTS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO BE OF A CONCERN. BEHIND THE FRONT MOIST UPSLOPE NW FLOW
WILL SET UP ALONG THE NC BORDER WITH TN...BECOMING RATHER VIGOROUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DURING THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LEE...WHILE COLD ADVECTION KEEPS THE MOUNTAINS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER STIFF AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEAR TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EVEN WITH WINDS STAYING UP...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AS COLD ADVECTION OVERWHELMS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE.
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
SATURDAY IN SLOWLY MOVING THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDINESS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR
REGION BUT ONLY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT NC MOUNTAIN PRECIP EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS SEEMED TO PERFORM BETTER RECENTLY AND
THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE ENERGY WELL NORTH.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION.  TIMING IS A BIT DIFFERENT BUT THE BASIC FLOW SIMILAR.
THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE IN TIMING FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME.  I BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCES WHERE THERE WAS
SOME AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITION.  TEMPERATURES AT OR BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
LIFT MOISTURE OVER THE SFC RIDGE OF DRY AIR...RESULTING IN LOW
CLOUDS ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL GA TO THE SC MIDLANDS. THESE CIGS
ARE COMING IN EARLIER THAN WHAT/S IN THE MOS...AND WITH THE
INCREASING SE FLOW...THE NON MTN TAF SITES SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. I STAYED CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE WHEN IT COME TO THE IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
DEVELOP AROUND 12 UTC AT MOST SITES. THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR BEFORE THEN. THE CIGS SHOULD
STAY LOW...IN THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS IN THE RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST
THIS MORNING...VEERING AROUND TO ESE OR SE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LLVL WIND SHEAR IS HIGHLY LIKELY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THAT/S TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO CARRY A WIND SHEAR GROUP
IN THE TAFS. THE PCPN WILL BECOME LIGHTER BY LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY ON THU.
HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION...SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS WHERE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS
LIKELY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THU EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
MON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
     068>072-501>510.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>008-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ053-059-063>065-501>510-SCZ001>007-010-
092030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
318 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-062-092030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-MACON-
318 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN GREATER WIND
SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-092030-
ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
318 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO WET
SOIL FROM THE RAIN LAST WEEKEND...THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.