Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

320 
WGUS72 KGSP 091930
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

NCC089-175-092330-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110309T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
230 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HENDERSON AND
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 225 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER ONE HALF 
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SEVERAL STREAMS SUCH AS BAT FORK...CLEAR AND MUD CREEKS IN 
HENDERSON COUNTY ARE AT OR OVER BANKFULL NOW. THE LITTLE RIVER IN 
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IS FLOODING LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER AND 
PARTS OF LAKE CASCADE ROAD. THESE RIVERS AND STREAMS LEVELS WILL 
LIKELY GO HIGHER WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8229 3522 8237 3512 8271 3505 8302
      3527 8289 3544 8268 3545 8263 3543 8260
      3544 8256 3543 8256 3543 8253 3544 8252
      3547 8231

$$

PAT

717 
WGUS72 KGSP 092118
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

NCC089-175-092330-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110309T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
418 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HENDERSON AND
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 411 PM EST...IT WAS REPORTED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS OCCURRING  
ACROSS THE LITTLE RIVER...BAT FORK AND MUD CREEK BASINS.

THE LITTLE RIVER WAS FLOODING CASCADE LAKE ROAD NEAR CRAB CREEK ROAD
AND MERRILL LANE.

ACROSS SOUTHERN HENDERSONVILLE...FLOODING ALONG BAT FORK CREEK IN 
THE HENDERSONVILLE AIRPORT AREA WAS OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
SHEPHERD STREET AND NEW HOPE ROAD. 

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEVILS FORK CREEK MAY FLOOD ALONG DANA ROAD. 

FLOODING ALONG MUD CREEK...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE JUNCTION OF US HIGHWAY
25 AND 176...7TH AVENUE AND KING STREET IS LIKELY AS WELL.

ALONG CLEAR CREEK...EXPECT WATER TO APPROACH FRUITLAND ROAD.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8229 3522 8237 3512 8271 3505 8302
      3527 8289 3544 8268 3545 8263 3543 8260
      3544 8256 3543 8256 3543 8253 3544 8252
      3547 8231

$$

CSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1111 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. VERY MOIST AIR WILL CROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENTLY WATCHING A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
METRO ATLANTA WITH SOME INTEREST. THE QLCS IS ALREADY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR BUOYANCY AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN INTO
PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE AIR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A LARGE
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN STUNTED A BIT BY SURFACE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

THERE IS SOME CAUSE FOR CONCERN ABOUT THE HIGH QPF. ON THE ONE
HAND...IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOVEMENT OF THE QLCS TO OUR SOUTH COULD
INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
ON THE OTHER HAND...BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES FROM THE NAM BELOW ABOUT
850MB SHOW THE FLOW IS ACTUALLY FROM THE ATLANTIC AND NOT FROM THE
GULF. SO...WE SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT LOW
LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. AND...THE FLOW THROUGH
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FRONT-TO-BACK...SO LIGHT TO
MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BASICALLY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT DECREASES TO THE QPF
OVERALL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME THINK YET THAT WE ARE ON THE
WRONG TRACK. STAY THE COURSE.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW SHOULD RIDE RIGHT UP THE I-85 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE AND A WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE FA LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND I THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A LOW TOPPED QLCS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...BUT AS ALWAYS IN THESE HIGH SHEAR SITUATIONS...A BRIEF
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW ECMWF HAS 200 TO 300 J/KG CAPE VALUES OVER
THE SW PART OF THE UPSTATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC WET BULB TEMPS...NAM FORECAST WET BULBS AND OBSERVED
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALL BUT A COUPLE RIDGE TOPS IN AVERY COUNTY
ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS
PCPN BEGINS...AND I/VE REMOVED WINTRY PCPN FROM THE NRN MTNS THIS
MORNING.

STRONG LLVL SELY FLOW WILL INDUCE A MOUNTAIN WAVE AND HELP TRANSPORT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND TO THE GROUND RIGHT ALONG THE TN LINE. I DON/T
SEE THIS BEING A HIGH WIND SITUATION...BUT I HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED
LOW IN ITS BASE WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...THE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
PIEDMONT SECTION OF OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST OF
OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF THE CAPE AND HELICITY WILL BE EAST OF
OUR AREA AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH EXISTS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO BE OF A CONCERN. BEHIND THE FRONT MOIST UPSLOPE NW FLOW
WILL SET UP ALONG THE NC BORDER WITH TN...BECOMING RATHER VIGOROUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DURING THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LEE...WHILE COLD ADVECTION KEEPS THE MOUNTAINS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER STIFF AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEAR TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EVEN WITH WINDS STAYING UP...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AS COLD ADVECTION OVERWHELMS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE.
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
SATURDAY IN SLOWLY MOVING THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDINESS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR
REGION BUT ONLY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT NC MOUNTAIN PRECIP EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS SEEMED TO PERFORM BETTER RECENTLY AND
THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE ENERGY WELL NORTH.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION.  TIMING IS A BIT DIFFERENT BUT THE BASIC FLOW SIMILAR.
THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE IN TIMING FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME.  I BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCES WHERE THERE WAS
SOME AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITION.  TEMPERATURES AT OR BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CIGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN LIFTING
MOISTURE OVER A SHALL DRY RIDGE AT THE SFC. THE DRY LLVL AIR HAS SO
FAR KEPT CIGS FROM FALLING INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
INTERSTATE 85 AND THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LLVLS FINALLY MOISTEN IN
RESPONSE TO RAINFALL. I THINK CIGS WILL LOWER MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
FROM THE MTNS AT KAND AND KCLT. HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO LOWER VSBYS
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT MANY SITES TOWARD NOON. A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE REGION TODAY.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL
BE A TENDENCY FOR THE SFC WINDS TO STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS...BUT TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AT KCLT AND KAVL. THAT/S WHAT I HAVE IN THE TAF...BUT IT/S NOT A
GIVEN THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SE AT KCLT TODAY AS THE
WIND SHIFT LINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE AIRFIELD.

CIGS SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER TONIGHT ONCE THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION AND THE FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT. AT THIS
TIME THERE WILL BE NO COLD AIR DAMMING LEFT AND LIFR OR VLIFR CIGS
ARE A GOOD BET.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY ON THU.
HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION...A FEW SHRA AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A TSTM WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS WHERE HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THU EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W MON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-501>510.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>008-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-059-062>065-068>072-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010-101030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
521 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-101030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
521 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-101030-
ELBERT-UNION NC-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
521 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DUE TO WET
SOIL FROM THE RAIN LAST WEEKEND...THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END EARLY THURSDAY. DUE TO WET SOIL FROM THE
RAIN LAST WEEKEND...THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07