Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER TROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FORM THE WEST THIS MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT WHERE NC BORDERS GA AND SC. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE SOUTH FACING ESCARPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR RUNOFF...
AND WILL BE EXPANDED TO NORTHERN OCONEE AND NORTHERN PICKENS
COUNTIES IN SC.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...SHEAR IS
TREMENDOUS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED THERE. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS AROUND
MIDDAY...WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS
WILL REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE AN ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR TODAY.
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE
CANCELED EARLY UNLESS STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE BEFORE ISSUANCE.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ON UPSTREAM RADAR HAVE BEN MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR AREA...A
WIND PRODUCT MAY BE NEEDED FOR NE GA AND UPSTATE SC. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER INTO THIS EVENING IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING RAPIDLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SNOW...WITH THE MOIST LAYER BELOW MINUS
FIVE...BUT NOT TO MINUS TEN. FOR NOW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
CARRIED WHERE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT IT...WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND TAKE ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
LLVLS WILL BE QUITE DRY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY ON TUE AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL MOISTURE WILL LIFT
INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TUE NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES ARE A GOOD BET OVER PARTS OF THE FA...THOUGH MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE LIQUID FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE MINS WILL BE
CLOSE TO FREEZING. WE/VE GOT PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION...BUT A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE TUE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER MTN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS WELL WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.  HOWEVER...SEEMS WE SHOULD TREND TOWARD THE GFS
TOWARD THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST AS GFS AND OLD ECMWF DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY.  NOW LOOKING AT THE NEWEST 06/00Z ECMWF...IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES.  THE TRENDS OF THESE
MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE BEEN TO DECREASE THE QPF.  BOTH OF THESE
MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST TO REACH THE AVL AREA
ON AVERAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE ECMWF WAS FASTER IN PREVIOUS
RUNS BUT NOW IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CAPE WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS IN THE LATEST RUN HAS MORE CAPE.
THUS...WITH THE HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH THE MORE CONFIDENT
GFS...DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.  BOTH THESE MODELS
DIG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH...GFS DEEPER AND WIDER AND ECMWF HAS A
SKINNY QUICKER MOVING TROUGH.  VERY BRIEF NW FLOW PRECIP THURSDAY
EVENING TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT.  DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NEXT FRONT MAY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONT...
MODEL DATA CIG RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
VSBY TO MVFR. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND CB WILL BE CARRIED IN THE TAF. BY
MIDDAY GUSTY S WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND VFR
RETURNS.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY IFR CIG AND MVFR VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING IN
HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND
SHEAR SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SC...WHERE CB WILL BE
CARRIED. THIS WIND SHEAR ONLY MEETS CRITERIA FOR LLWS AT KHKY...AND
THE REMARK WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE MOUNTAIN SC TAFS. GUSTY S
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BY MIDDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXCEPT
BRIEFLY W AT KAND IN LEE TROUGHING...AND VFR RETURNS WITH DRYING.
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL W OF
KAVL NEAR THE TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WED
NIGHT OR THU WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-501-503-505.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ058-062>064.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001-002.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

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