Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION AND LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER PENINSULA TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR GAYLORD
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREEN BAY. SOME WEAK STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR NRN LWR DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND
ARE MOVING EAST. MESO ANALYSIS 2-3K J/KG MUCAPE WEST OF US-131 SOUTH
OF I-96. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED FROM 35KTS TO 25 AND
ARE PROGD TO REMAIN NEAR 30KTS TODAY. AS WE HEAT UP TODAY...
INSTABILITY WILL GO UP. PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES TOO. SO
WE
HAVE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FRONT THE COLD FRONT... ALL
THE INGREDIENTS WE NEED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE QUIET. HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WE/LL SEE STORMS DEVELOP. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST WILL BE NON SEVERE.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. MOST
OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE MIDWEST. PRETTY GOOD DPVA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...RH PROGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY TROP SO WE
DON/T EXPECT MUCH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW THOUGH AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 10C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

DRY WX CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(125 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHC OF RAIN AND
TSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING FROM A 30-35 KT LLJ. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT FRONT AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(125 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS (WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KMKG) THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE BRIEFLY
INTO THE IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MID
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT GREAT AND THUS THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH EITHER. AS A RESULT...WAVES
WILL LIKE REMAIN AOB 3 FT TODAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATER TODAY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THAT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A
STORM...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    93
SHORT TERM:  93
LONG TERM:   LAURENS
AVIATION:    LAURENS
MARINE:      93
HYDROLOGY:   93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-210945-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN STORM MOTION
WILL BE EAST AT 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LMZ844>849-210945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST NORTH OF PENTWATER
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LAURENS

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