Alert archive / Michigan / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

August 20, 2011Newaygo County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this special weather statement at Aug 20, 2011, 9:27 AM EDT for Newaygo County, Michigan. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 20, 2011, 9:27 AM EDT (13:27 UTC)
Expired: Aug 20, 2011, 10:30 AM EDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI

County Newaygo County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 20, 7:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 7:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER PENINSULA TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR GAYLORD
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREEN BAY. SOME WEAK STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR NRN LWR DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND
ARE MOVING EAST. MESO ANALYSIS 2-3K J/KG MUCAPE WEST OF US-131 SOUTH
OF I-96. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED FROM 35KTS TO 25 AND
ARE PROGD TO REMAIN NEAR 30KTS TODAY. AS WE HEAT UP TODAY...
INSTABILITY WILL GO UP. PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES TOO. SO
WE
HAVE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FRONT THE COLD FRONT... ALL
THE INGREDIENTS WE NEED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE QUIET. HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WE/LL SEE STORMS DEVELOP. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST WILL BE NON SEVERE.

PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. MOST
OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE MIDWEST. PRETTY GOOD DPVA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...RH PROGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY TROP SO WE
DON/T EXPECT MUCH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW THOUGH AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 10C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

DRY WX CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LOWER MI IN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THIS TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI LEADING TO DRY WEATHER.  WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ON FRI...SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TUE AFTERNOON FORECAST.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.  A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
SHOWN IN ND AT 12Z TUE...AND HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
00Z MODEL RUNS.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE
IN PRIOR TO 00Z WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(750 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO
TAFS SITES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE I ADDED SOME IFR TO WRN TAF SITES LIKE
KGRR KAZO...AND KMKG PRIOR TO 18Z.  IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z THIS EVENING.  WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE FOG RISK TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE WEAK.  I DID ADD MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT GREAT AND THUS THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH EITHER. AS A RESULT...WAVES
WILL LIKE REMAIN AOB 3 FT TODAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011)
PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATER TODAY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THAT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A
STORM...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    93
SHORT TERM:  93
LONG TERM:   MJS
AVIATION:    MJS
MARINE:      93
HYDROLOGY:   93

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 20, 5:41 AM EDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
541 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-210945-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
541 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. SMALL HAIL...WINDS OVER 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN
STORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-210945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
541 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. SMALL HAIL...WINDS OVER 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN
STORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WAVES COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER AROUND ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST NORTH OF PENTWATER
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 9:27 AM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
927 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

MIZ044-045-201430-
MECOSTA-NEWAYGO-
927 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 925 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES WEST OF BIG RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODVILLE...          GOODWELL TWP...       STANWOOD...
  BIG RAPIDS...         GRANT TWP...          COLFAX TWP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4379 8538 4356 8534 4360 8592 4368 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 265DEG 25KT 4365 8582

OSTUNO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 20, 10:05 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Isabella, Mecosta	55 min
Aug 20, 12:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Mecosta	63 min
Aug 20, 12:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Kent	62 min
Aug 20, 1:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kent, Ottawa	39 min
Aug 20, 1:09 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		36 min
Aug 20, 1:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Allegan	39 min
Aug 20, 1:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ionia, Kent, Montcalm	48 min
Aug 20, 2:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton, Gratiot, Ionia, Montcalm	59 min
Aug 20, 2:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Clinton, Eaton, Ingham	65 min
Aug 20, 2:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Gratiot	59 min
Aug 20, 2:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Calhoun	60 min
Aug 20, 3:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson	47 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Michigan, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.