Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011)
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND ALSO USHER IN SOME MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S. SOME SCATTERED FROST IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL
TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED
HAILERS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BE AN
ISSUE WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING. STRONG
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO ASSESSING WHERE THE RAIN WILL FALL
ON SATURDAY. SFC AND UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATE JUST SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED IN
AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS
COULD SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EVEN NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AS
SHOWN BY SOME MODELS. KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE GOING ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
NOW...BUT HAVE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE RAIN WILL SET UP.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE ABLE
TO DECOUPLE...WE COULD SEE FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES
UP NORTH. WENT CLOSE TO MAVMOS WHICH SHOWS LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FROST ADVISORY IF IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES
CAN CLEAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
PCPN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW COMPLEX IS FCST TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION A MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A DRY DAY ON
MON...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EVEN A SURE THING. THE UPPER LOW DIVING
SE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL TEMPORARILY SWEEP THE MOISTURE AND RAIN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON. HOW FAR THIS LOW GOES
BEFORE IT STARTS WRAPPING THE OTHER UPPER WAVE BACK TO THE NW WILL
DETERMINE THE CHC FOR A DRY DAY ON MON. TEMPS ON MON WILL BE COOL
EVEN WITH SOME SUN AS H850 TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 1-2C RANGE.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LARGER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW
COMPLEX WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE NW BY TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT
WAVES TO OCCASIONALLY ROTATE THROUGH THE CWFA...ALONG WITH POP UP
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THU. IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY GLOOMY. WE
SHOULD HAVE A SOMEWHAT LIMITED TEMP SWING EACH DAY WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING TEMPS UP AT NIGHT...AND LIMITING THE WARMTH DURING THE DAY.
WE WILL SEE A MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW ADVECTS SOME WARMER AIR IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE
EAST.

THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BUILD IN SOME UPPER RIDGING THEN FOR THE
DAY ON FRI NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO KICK
UPPER LOWS OUT TOO QUICK...BUT WE WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC DRY AND
MILDER FCST ON FRI FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(153 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011)
FIRST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SET OF TERMINAL FCSTS IS DEALING WITH THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
BUILDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTH
OF THE STATE ACROSS NRN IN AND NRN IL. THE ONLY ORGANIZED MECHANISM
FOR TOUCHING OFF CONVECTION MIGHT BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL JUST BE RANDOM ISOLATED CELLS. WE HAVE A VCTS IN
ALL FCSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE INSTABILITY
WILL DIMINISH.

LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO OUR NW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THE
U.P....AND WI...WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z OR SO. THEN...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
IN/DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...(356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011)
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS AS WAVES
BUILD TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND AND
NORTHEAST GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH THE RAIN AND
COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL NOT BE A GOOD WEEKEND TO BE OUT ON THE
LAKE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011)
SCATTERED DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL...BUT SOME PLACES COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN BASIN AVERAGE BEFORE THE SLOW MOVING LOW TAKES LEAVE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENTIRE NEARSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:  OSTUNO
LONG TERM:   NJJ
AVIATION:    NJJ
MARINE:      OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:   OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-140945-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY
STORMS TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE HEAVY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A
MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-140945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE A RISK TO MARINERS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT THE VISIBILITY INTO THIS EVENING.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS A NORTHERLY
FLOW SETS UP. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES EXISTS ON SUNDAY. THUS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
411 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MIZ040-132115-
CLARE-
411 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERIDEN TWP...       CLARE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4382 8461 4381 8480 4398 8479 4400 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 011DEG 4KT 4388 8465

NJJ