Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Green Bay, WI

237 
WWUS53 KGRB 200415
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIC135-200430-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-110720T0430Z/
WAUPACA WI-
1115 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
WAUPACA COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1109 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLINTONVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTH OF NEW LONDON
TO FREMONT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLINTONVILLE...READFIELD AND EMBARRASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4448 8901 4468 8904 4468 8860 4459 8861
      4459 8874 4425 8874 4425 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 270DEG 28KT 4467 8883 4448 8867
          4428 8877
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

TH

088 
WWUS53 KGRB 200430 RRA
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIC135-200439-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-110720T0430Z/
WAUPACA WI-
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WAUPACA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4448 8901 4468 8904 4468 8860 4459 8861
      4459 8874 4425 8874 4425 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 270DEG 28KT 4467 8868 4448 8852
          4428 8862

$$

TH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
348 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW HAS KICKED OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. QUESTION LINGER ON HOW SOUTH AND
WEST CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA DUE TO WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES
OFF TO THE WEST. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF
STORMS...850/300MB THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS/WRF MODEL QPF. IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...
COULD BE A WIND EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS SINCE THE
HEAT WAVE OF JULY 13-14...1995. 850MB/925MB WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. USING THE
1000/850MB MIXING RATIOS OFF THE MODELS...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE INTENSE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO 105 TO 115 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE HEAT TO
NEAR THE LAKE. ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES. DOOR COUNTY IS ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE BEING SURROUNDED BY THE
COOLER WATERS...BUT EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO
RUN UP THE SPINE OF THE DOOR PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS AND TIMING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US FINALLY BREAKING DOWN LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SLOWLY BUILD THE RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND SWINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS FRONT...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW...AND PLAN TO FOLLOW ITS THINKING.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THRU THE AREA...BUT MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY
ACTIVITY. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HINTING AT MCS
POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATING AND TIMING THESE THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH...KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY BELOW 100...BUT WITH
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WED NIGHT...WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING GOING INTO THURSDAY. WILL ONLY NUDGE TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HEATING...BUT IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE...925/850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT TEMPS MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS WILL
STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...SO STILL A LITTLE
STICKY. TYPICAL SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. TRIED TO PINPOINT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT KGRB/KATW AND WILL PROBABLY BE ADDED TO THE 00Z TAFS AT
KRHI/KAUW/KCWA. ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA...IT WILL BECOME VERY
HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-
031-035>039-045-048-049.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-022-040-050-073-074.

&&

ECKBERG/BERSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-202030-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100. WITH DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE 70S...HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 100 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE...EVEN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS SINCE THE HEAT WAVE
ON JULY 13-14... 1995. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE 70S.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MINOR RELIEF TO THE INTENSE HEAT ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-202030-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE MARINE FOG MAY RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY POSE A SERIOUS RISK TO BOATERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DENSE MARINE FOG WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR.

ECKBERG/BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1004 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JUNCTION CITY           44.58N 89.75W
07/19/2011                   PORTAGE            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JUNCTION CITY           44.58N 89.75W
07/19/2011                   PORTAGE            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1014 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARSHFIELD              44.66N 90.16W
07/19/2011                   WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER 200 BLOCK OF MCMILLEN

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1019 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARSHFIELD              44.66N 90.16W
07/19/2011                   WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER 200 BLOCK OF MCMILLEN

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUDOLPH                 44.50N 89.80W
07/19/2011  E60 MPH          WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLOVER                  44.45N 89.53W
07/19/2011                   PORTAGE            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            8 INCH TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN
            FELL IN 20 MINUTES AS WELL.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     STEVENS POINT           44.51N 89.56W
07/19/2011  E60 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. 12 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH
            DOWN.

&&

BERSCH