Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Green Bay, WI

357 
WWUS53 KGRB 200045
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
745 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIC073-200130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-110720T0130Z/
MARATHON WI-
745 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
MARATHON COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 80 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEDFORD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABBOTSFORD AROUND 750 PM CDT.
  UNITY AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  SPENCER AROUND 810 PM CDT.
  STRATFORD AROUND 813 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE COLBY...
MILAN...FENWOOD...STRATFORD AND ROZELLVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE DANGEROUS STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE
PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING
BE ISSUED.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9032 4504 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020
      4513 9019 4512 8970 4469 8971 4469 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 313DEG 40KT 4502 9043
WIND...HAIL 80MPH <.75IN

$$

ECKBERG/BERSCH

721 
WWUS53 KGRB 200104
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
804 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIC073-200130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-110720T0130Z/
MARATHON WI-
804 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
MARATHON COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80 MPH.  
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABBOTSFORD...OR 18 MILES 
SOUTH OF MEDFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN
MARATHON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS SPENCER...
STRATFORD AND ROZELLVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE DANGEROUS STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE
PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING
BE ISSUED.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9032 4504 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020
      4513 9019 4500 9003 4469 8971 4469 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 317DEG 40KT 4485 9021
WIND...HAIL 80MPH <.75IN

$$

ECKBERG/BERSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
348 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW HAS KICKED OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. QUESTION LINGER ON HOW SOUTH AND
WEST CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA DUE TO WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES
OFF TO THE WEST. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF
STORMS...850/300MB THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS/WRF MODEL QPF. IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...
COULD BE A WIND EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS SINCE THE
HEAT WAVE OF JULY 13-14...1995. 850MB/925MB WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. USING THE
1000/850MB MIXING RATIOS OFF THE MODELS...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE INTENSE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO 105 TO 115 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE HEAT TO
NEAR THE LAKE. ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES. DOOR COUNTY IS ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE BEING SURROUNDED BY THE
COOLER WATERS...BUT EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO
RUN UP THE SPINE OF THE DOOR PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS AND TIMING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US FINALLY BREAKING DOWN LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SLOWLY BUILD THE RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND SWINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS FRONT...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW...AND PLAN TO FOLLOW ITS THINKING.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THRU THE AREA...BUT MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY
ACTIVITY. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HINTING AT MCS
POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATING AND TIMING THESE THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP A LITTLE. DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH...KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY BELOW 100...BUT WITH
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WED NIGHT...WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING GOING INTO THURSDAY. WILL ONLY NUDGE TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HEATING...BUT IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE...925/850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT TEMPS MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS WILL
STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...SO STILL A LITTLE
STICKY. TYPICAL SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. TRIED TO PINPOINT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT KGRB/KATW AND WILL PROBABLY BE ADDED TO THE 00Z TAFS AT
KRHI/KAUW/KCWA. ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA...IT WILL BECOME VERY
HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-
031-035>039-045-048-049.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-022-040-050-073-074.

&&

ECKBERG/BERSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-202030-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100. WITH DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE 70S...HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 100 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE...EVEN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS SINCE THE HEAT WAVE
ON JULY 13-14... 1995. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE 70S.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MINOR RELIEF TO THE INTENSE HEAT ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-202030-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE MARINE FOG MAY RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY POSE A SERIOUS RISK TO BOATERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DENSE MARINE FOG WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN AND
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR.

ECKBERG/BERSCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
700 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIZ018-030-200100-
LINCOLN-MARATHON-
700 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WAUSAU TO 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAUSAU TO 72 MILES WEST OF
WAUSAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ATHENS...             HAMBURG...            ABBOTSFORD...
  MERRILL...            COLBY...              UNITY...
  PINE RIVER...         MARATHON CITY...      EDGAR...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

AK