Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Green Bay, WI

295 
WWUS53 KGRB 180104
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
804 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

WIC037-041-075-180130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110718T0130Z/
FLORENCE WI-FOREST WI-MARINETTE WI-
804 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
MARINETTE...FOREST AND FLORENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM 8 MILES WEST OF FLORENCE TO 9 MILES WEST OF CRANDON...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRANDON...FLORENCE...GOODMAN...CARTER...PEMBINE...NEWALD...
  NASHVILLE AND MOLE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4593 8810 4587 8807 4581 8813 4575 8787
      4568 8778 4566 8782 4556 8780 4556 8782
      4550 8779 4542 8785 4538 8768 4541 8784
      4537 8788 4539 8892 4547 8889 4547 8905
      4592 8905 4596 8892 4602 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 289DEG 31KT 4595 8835 4553 8903
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

ECKBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WARMED IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
70S TO NEAR 80. A PARTIAL CHECK OF DEW POINT DATA AT GREEN BAY
INDICATED A 81 DEW POINT BACK IN JULY OF 1995. SO WE ARE NEAR
ALL TIME HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPT
WAS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE LAKE BREEZE KICKED.
TEMPERATURE AT MID AFTERNOON WAS ONLY A COOL 69 DEGREES AT THE
KEWAUNEE LAKESHORE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT A MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THEN DIVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA. MANY QUESTION LINGER INTO TIMING AND LOCATION ON WHERE
THE SEVEREST PORTION OF THE MCS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MCS. CURRENT REGIONAL
RADAR NOW SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE COMPLEX ORGANIZES...IT WILL
QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MOST PLACES IN THE 90S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 103 TO 108
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AS FOR HEADLINES...EXTENDED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON PER COORDINATION WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER. HAVE EXTENDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. MIDNIGHT CREW WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO ADD A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES
DUE TO EXPECTED OFF SHORE WIND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LAKE BREEZE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR INLAND AS IT DID TODAY. DOOR COUNTY APPROACHED
100 DEGREES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WESTERLY
WIND OFF BAY...HEAT INDICES WILL COME CLOSE AGAIN TO 100 AT INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES...AND
TSTM CHCS.

COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST
DAY WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 110
IN C/EC WI. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH ARX/MKX. OPTED TO NOT EXPAND THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WARNING...AS HEAT INDICES MAY ONLY BE IN
THE 90S ACROSS NORTHERN WI ON TUESDAY.

PCPN CHCS WILL BE TIED TO THE VARIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM LINGERING EVENING STORMS
ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT TO BE
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH H8 FLOW VEERING NORTHWEST AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVG INTO NORTHERN WI. HOWEVER...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN BY TUES NGT AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER
ON WEDS TO WARRANT A POP OVER THE FAR NORTH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD NW WI ON WEDS NGT...AND
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON THU/FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON FRIDAY
NGT OR SATURDAY...AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH ALL OF THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE REGION...AND
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHC OF
TSTMS FOR ANY OF THE PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...
MODELS FORECAST ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT ON WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL
SET UP. CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS AREA
SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AS IT GRADUALLY TURNS SOUTHEAST. HAVE
HIT THE 18Z TAFS HARD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT KAUW AND KCWA
BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z AND KGRB/KATW BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. THIS TIMING
OF THIS COMPLEX MAY BE ADJUSTED ONCE IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.

AFTER THE COMPLEX OF STORMS EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL NEED TO
WORRY AGAIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT...THINK THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE A LITTLE SLOWER TO LIFT THIS
MORNING...SO ANY DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM PROBABLY W
WILL NOT CLEAR OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15-16Z. HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-
031-035>039-045-048-049.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021-073-074.

&&

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-182015-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA HIGHWAYS.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES SHOULD
DROP BELOW 100 DEGREES BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
OVER 100 DEGREES ON SOME OR ALL OF THESE DAYS.

THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONSTRUCTION CREWS AND LARGE OUTDOOR EVENTS
SHOULD MAKE PLANS FOR PROVIDING SHADE...WATER AND PLACES FOR
PEOPLE TO COOL OFF. THOSE CARING FOR THE ELDERLY AND DISABLED
SHOULD ENSURE THEY ARE NOT ENDANGERED BY THE UPCOMING HOT WEATHER.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-182015-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER THE COLDER WATERS. IN ADDITION TO FOG...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS THAT WILL MAKE
BOATING HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DENSE MARINE FOG WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG IS USUALLY MOST DENSE WHERE THE WATER IS COLDEST
AND WHEN WINDS ARE LIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD OCCUR.

ECKBERG/TSK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

WIZ005-180000-
VILAS-
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ASHLAND AND
BAYFIELD COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS WHEN THEY REACH VILAS COUNTY. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS STRONGER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO WESTERN VILAS COUNTY BY 600 PM.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WINCHESTER BY 645 PM CDT...
  LAC DU FLAMBEAU BY 655 PM CDT...
  BOULDER JUNCTION BY 700 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. STAY
TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
743 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW RHINELANDER        45.69N 89.50W
07/17/2011  E65 MPH          ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

&&