Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
200 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR 700MB
TROUGH AXIS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
EVIDENT COMING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO ON WATER VAPOR. SO WITH
CONTINUED HEATING EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS TO THE ENE WILL
PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
RECENTLY AND DCAPE NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER MICROBURST
EVENT. HOWEVER SBCAPE PUSHING 3000 J/KG AND HAIL HEIGHTS NOT AN
UNREACHABLE 30-35KFT...SO HAIL MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS MAY
LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...WHICH RUC IS
HINTING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG DO THE CLOUDS LINGER. NAM IS MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE GUIDANCE
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE COOLEST...WHILE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON BREAKS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A SLOW CLEARING MORE IN THE RUC AND GFS CAMP SO
WILL SHADE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON IF CLEARING DOES
INDEED OCCUR...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO THE WEST WHERE IT WILL
CLEAR FASTER AND NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THOSE MAY SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAKE IT HERE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR EITHER SCENARIO AND
WILL CARRY ONLY 20 POPS.

RISING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT TO FAR EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
200 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF COLORADO AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THAT STORM TRACK FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A
SUBTLE WEAKENING AND SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECASTS SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO DROP FROM +1 TO +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
554 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN AFFECT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STAY AWAY FROM BOTH TAF SITES. SO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME SINCE NOTHING STRONGER TO AFFECT THE SITES LOOKS IMMINENT.
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY IF SOMETHING GETS CLOSE. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE
WINDS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL CAUSE FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. COULD NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME ON IT DUE TO CURRENT
SEVERE WEATHER BUT WILL FINE TUNE THAT AS IT GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHED.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1048 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2011 /1148 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE THE THREAT BECOMES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
831 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

KSZ027-041-290315-
GREELEY-WALLACE-
831 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 828 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...INSTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WINDS
TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10197 3910 10193 3906 10148 3883 10148
      3870 10153 3870 10157 3864 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 191DEG 15KT 3876 10175

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
836 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W WILD HORSE          38.82N 103.02W
07/28/2011                   CHEYENNE           CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 287
            AND COUNTY ROAD 8 NEAR THE BIG SANDY.

&&

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
931 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

KSZ014-290345-
THOMAS-
1031 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MINGO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 10076 3917 10099 3945 10124 3957 10095
      3957 10091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 151DEG 7KT 3931 10092

JLUNDQUI

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