Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
308 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2011

17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS GENERALLY ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MISS
VALLEY AND TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS PAC NORTHWEST WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT IN BETWEEN OVER CWA. SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO FLOW NORTHEASTWARD FROM AZ/NM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CWA AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS QUASI-STATIONARY APPROX FROM EAST OF
PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
KANSAS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ONGOING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
EVENING SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY 00Z WHICH
WILL CREATE SURFACE CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THIS AREA AND PROGRESS
TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FA. STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SE OF THE AREA BUT STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THESE STORMS EAST. MAY TWEAK
POPS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS FOR THIS EVENING BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
ONGOING POPS LOOK REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT BETTER LIFT ARRIVES WITH
SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOTED ON 700-300MB DIV-Q FIELDS
COUPLED WITH A 30-40KT 850MB LLJ NOTED. WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
ROUGHLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF/THIRD OF FA OVERNIGHT AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING PRECIP IN
THIS AREA AND CAN/T FIND A SOLID METEOROLOGICAL REASON TO DISAGREE.
THURSDAY MORNING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST BUT THIS
MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTING DEPENDENT UPON FORWARD MOTION OF EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MCS AND TRAILING SUBSIDENCE. OTHERWISE CONVECTION/PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER DURING THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVE THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS/SOUTHEAST COLO AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FA...WITH A
SLIGHT WEIGHT TO POPS AND QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST FA NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE.

IN THE EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...INITIALLY ZONAL FLOW UNDER NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF EAST-WEST UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS REGION. MAIN CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD
WAS TO DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL TUESDAY VERSUS MONDAY WITH
OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY MONDAY. INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN CWA TUESDAY AS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THAT TIME.

050
&&

.AVIATION...
500 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR KMCK...THE FORCING IS BETTER AT KGLD AND
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE CB GROUPS FOR KMCK IN THE TAFS...AND VCTS WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AT KGLD. PREVAILING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VARIABLE AND LIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. AS THE TERMINALS RADIATE AND COOL
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. HAVE INCLUDED
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BY 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. DURING THE
DAYTIME...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...SO
HAVE INCLUDED CB GROUPS AGAIN AT 14Z.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1026 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2011 /1126 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE
FROM NORTON THROUGH HILL CITY TO GOVE KANSAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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