Alert archive / Colorado / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Goodland, KS

July 28, 2011Cheyenne County, Colorado

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 2011, 5:53 PM MDT for Cheyenne County, Colorado. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 28, 2011, 5:53 PM MDT (23:53 UTC)
Expired: Jul 28, 2011, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Cheyenne County, CO

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -290 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 2:00 PM MDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 2:00 PM MDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
200 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR 700MB
TROUGH AXIS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
EVIDENT COMING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO ON WATER VAPOR. SO WITH
CONTINUED HEATING EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS TO THE ENE WILL
PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
RECENTLY AND DCAPE NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER MICROBURST
EVENT. HOWEVER SBCAPE PUSHING 3000 J/KG AND HAIL HEIGHTS NOT AN
UNREACHABLE 30-35KFT...SO HAIL MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS MAY
LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...WHICH RUC IS
HINTING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG DO THE CLOUDS LINGER. NAM IS MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE GUIDANCE
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE COOLEST...WHILE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON BREAKS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A SLOW CLEARING MORE IN THE RUC AND GFS CAMP SO
WILL SHADE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON IF CLEARING DOES
INDEED OCCUR...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO THE WEST WHERE IT WILL
CLEAR FASTER AND NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THOSE MAY SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAKE IT HERE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR EITHER SCENARIO AND
WILL CARRY ONLY 20 POPS.

RISING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT TO FAR EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
200 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF COLORADO AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THAT STORM TRACK FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A
SUBTLE WEAKENING AND SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECASTS SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO DROP FROM +1 TO +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1140 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS
OVERALL. LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK SURFACE WIND FIELD. HAVE INCLUDED A
THUNDERSTORM IN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 21Z WITH POTENTIAL
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 04-05Z. KEPT STORMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS
THEMSELVES FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN COVERAGE AND LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD ONE
MOVE OVER A TERMINAL...MVFR/IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 10:48 AM MDT, 7 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1048 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2011 /1148 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE THE THREAT BECOMES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 28, 5:21 PM MDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             13 N GOODLAND           39.53N 101.67W
07/28/2011  E1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   MESONET

            HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN HALF DOLLAR AND PING PONG
            BALL IN SIZE. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

FOLTZ

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 5:29 PM MDT, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

COZ091-092-290015-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
529 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 525 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTH OF
BURLINGTON TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOYERO TO BOYERO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...INTENSE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 10317 3920 10228 3904 10206 3882 10266
      3867 10317 3867 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 299DEG 6KT 3911 10233 3908 10314
          3891 10321

FOLTZ

Local storm report, Jul 28, 5:38 PM MDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW BIRD CITY         39.74N 101.56W
07/28/2011  M70 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO RECEIVED 1.41 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, Jul 28, 5:47 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NNE GOODLAND         39.49N 101.64W
07/28/2011  M64 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

PMURRAY

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 5:48 PM MDT, 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

NEZ079-290015-
DUNDY-
548 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 543 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHAMPION...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 10144 4020 10197 4035 10196 4035 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 277DEG 15KT 4040 10178

JLUNDQUI

Local storm report, Jul 28, 5:53 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             5 NW JOES               39.70N 102.75W
07/28/2011  E0.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

MBULLER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 7:37 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Logan, Thomas	38 min
Jul 27, 8:05 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Logan	25 min
Jul 27, 8:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Gove, Logan	29 min
Jul 28, 2:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Cheyenne	14 min
Jul 28, 2:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	46 min
Jul 28, 3:23 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Rawlins	52 min
Jul 28, 3:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman	67 min
Jul 28, 5:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Sherman	60 min
Jul 28, 5:26 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Sherman	3 hr
Jul 27, 7:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Kit Carson	41 min
Jul 28, 2:50 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Kit Carson	25 min
Jul 28, 3:19 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Cheyenne	26 min
Jul 28, 4:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Kit Carson	44 min
Jul 28, 4:19 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Yuma	56 min
Jul 28, 4:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	34 min
Jul 28, 5:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Cheyenne	46 min
Jul 28, 5:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Yuma	34 min
Jul 28, 3:08 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Hitchcock	22 min
Jul 28, 3:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Hitchcock	43 min
Jul 28, 4:55 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Hitchcock, Red Willow	65 min
Jul 28, 5:38 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Hitchcock, Red Willow	49 min
Jul 28, 5:48 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Dundy	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Colorado, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.