Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
222 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

LATEST 20Z SURFACE CHART PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN YUMA
COUNTY CO SOUTHEAST TOWARD GOVE COUNTY KS. RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST FA. THE REST OF THE FA REMAINS
CAPPED. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS RECENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PUTTING THE REGION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN WY WILL MOVE EAST TRIGGERING STORMS OVER THE
FA. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG WARM FRONT SHOWING UP ON 20Z SURFACE
CHART. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT RETREATS. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND
SHEAR AROUND 30 M/S WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWEST FA FOR SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE, LACK OF MOISTURE AND WARMING H7
TEMPERATURES TO 16 C WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THOSE
PERIODS. WARM H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO INDICATED SO WILL KEEP POPS
NIL THROUGH THESE PERIODS. THE NAM SHOWS A FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND THEN COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
95 TO 100 SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE LOW AND MID 90S
TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
ARE ACTIVE WITH SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND AS IT DOES VERY
WARM H7 TEMPERATURES MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAPPING WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
POPS WILL BE NIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THEN WARM FROM THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
438 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD FROM
COLORADO...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE VICINTY OF
KGLD COMPARED TO KMCK. THE CAP IS STRONGER NEAR KMCK DUE TO STORMS
NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLIER IN THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THOUGH GFS AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
TERMINAL COULD REMAIN VFR. CONDITIONS AT KMCK WILL IMPROVE AS MIXING
INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011 /1155 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY TO
TRENTON...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

AFTER A SHORT PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM GOVE TO WRAY. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
612 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             ARAPAHOE                38.85N 102.17W
07/02/2011  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
07/02/2011  M58 MPH          YUMA               CO   AWOS

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
703 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW SEIBERT            39.35N 102.93W
07/02/2011  E65 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
707 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             3 S ABARR               39.81N 102.72W
07/02/2011  E1.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   STORM CHASER

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
709 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NW ST. FRANCIS       39.90N 101.97W
07/02/2011  E65 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
728 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ013-030200-
SHERMAN-
728 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 723 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOODLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH
WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10152 3936 10140 3924 10182 3941 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 246DEG 17KT 3936 10176

FOLTZ