Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Goodland, KS

138 
WWUS53 KGLD 030044
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

COC017-KSC199-030054-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-110703T0045Z/
CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE KS-
644 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL WALLACE AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT/745 PM
CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT).

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3905 10209 3889 10187 3872 10215 3883 10227
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 229DEG 15KT 3891 10200
$$

FOLTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
222 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

LATEST 20Z SURFACE CHART PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN YUMA
COUNTY CO SOUTHEAST TOWARD GOVE COUNTY KS. RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST FA. THE REST OF THE FA REMAINS
CAPPED. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS RECENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PUTTING THE REGION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW. THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN WY WILL MOVE EAST TRIGGERING STORMS OVER THE
FA. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG WARM FRONT SHOWING UP ON 20Z SURFACE
CHART. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT RETREATS. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND
SHEAR AROUND 30 M/S WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWEST FA FOR SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE, LACK OF MOISTURE AND WARMING H7
TEMPERATURES TO 16 C WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THOSE
PERIODS. WARM H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO INDICATED SO WILL KEEP POPS
NIL THROUGH THESE PERIODS. THE NAM SHOWS A FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND THEN COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
95 TO 100 SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE LOW AND MID 90S
TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
ARE ACTIVE WITH SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND AS IT DOES VERY
WARM H7 TEMPERATURES MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAPPING WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
POPS WILL BE NIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THEN WARM FROM THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
438 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD FROM
COLORADO...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE VICINTY OF
KGLD COMPARED TO KMCK. THE CAP IS STRONGER NEAR KMCK DUE TO STORMS
NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLIER IN THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THOUGH GFS AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
TERMINAL COULD REMAIN VFR. CONDITIONS AT KMCK WILL IMPROVE AS MIXING
INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011 /1155 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY TO
TRENTON...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

AFTER A SHORT PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM GOVE TO WRAY. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BULLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ041-022315-
GREELEY-
434 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 432 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR HORACE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 10194 3870 10187 3870 10169 3866 10156
      3848 10156 3828 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 210DEG 12KT 3845 10181

FOLTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

COZ090-022345-
YUMA COUNTY-
500 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 459 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF LONE STAR...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLARKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10204 4042 10204 4004 10280 4035 10280
      4044 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 299DEG 16KT 4047 10280

FOLTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ028-041-042-030030-
GREELEY-LOGAN-WICHITA-
659 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...GREELEY
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...

AT 656 PM CDT/556 PM MDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTH OF RUSSELL SPRINGS TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEOTI TO TRIBUNE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 10183 3860 10153 3886 10121 3893 10084
      3869 10098 3869 10112 3847 10112 3825 10144
      3826 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 257DEG 11KT 3881 10117 3858 10140
          3848 10168

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
612 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             ARAPAHOE                38.85N 102.17W
07/02/2011  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS