Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Goodland, KS

222 
WWUS53 KGLD 080605
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 AM MDT SAT OCT 8 2011

KSC109-193-080630-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0325.000000T0000Z-111008T0630Z/
THOMAS KS-LOGAN KS-
105 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
LOGAN AND THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 100 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MONUMENT...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MINGO...LEVANT...COLBY...HALFORD AND GEM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 43 AND 73.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 172.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 10133 3950 10125 3940 10072 3894 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 204DEG 40KT 3921 10105
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
$$

JRM

305 
WWUS53 KGLD 080620
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 AM MDT SAT OCT 8 2011

KSC109-080630-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0325.000000T0000Z-111008T0630Z/
LOGAN KS-
120 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3917 10127 3947 10126 3950 10125 3940 10072
      3913 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 217DEG 41KT 3934 10090
$$

KSC193-080630-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0325.000000T0000Z-111008T0630Z/
THOMAS KS-
120 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HALFORD...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HALFORD AND GEM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 73.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 172.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 10127 3947 10126 3950 10125 3940 10072
      3913 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 217DEG 41KT 3934 10090
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN
$$

JRM

675 
WWUS53 KGLD 080623
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 AM MDT SAT OCT 8 2011

KSC193-080633-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0325.000000T0000Z-111008T0630Z/
THOMAS KS-
123 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THOMAS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1230 AM MDT/130 AM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3917 10127 3947 10126 3950 10125 3940 10072
      3913 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 217DEG 41KT 3937 10087
$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
243 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHEN TO END THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW MUCH TO
COOL OF TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW IN THE PACIFIC THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN FROM NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FIRST PART OF
MAJOR UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH. THE SECOND...SOUTHERN PART OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS DIGGING/DEEPENING/SLIGHTLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. FRONT THAT WAS A PART OF THUNDERSTORM EVENT FROM LAST
NIGHT IS NEAR THE EASTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT.

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE JET SEGMENT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INCOMING TROUGH
TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE THE WORST WITH THE GFS
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS HAVING A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY WITH OUR COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH. IN GENERAL THEY
WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE IN THEIR INITIALIZATION. OVERALL THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. ON THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE NAM/ECMWF. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THE MODELS WERE CLOSE
WITH THE CANADIAN DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER.

BASED ON HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS...STRONG EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE...
AND MODEL BIAS OF A COMPLICATED TROUGH OF THIS NATURE...WILL TEND
TO BELIEVE A SLOWER/DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT...PROVIDING FURTHER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY
SHEARED...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

024

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAINS NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...DURING THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MODELS WANT TO DRY THINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT LEARY OF THAT CONSIDERING THE JET IN THE AREA. SREF POPS REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST IN THE SOUTH. SO DID
TREND DOWN POPS A LITTLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TRIED TO MAKE MAXES AS COOL AS
POSSIBLE BUT STILL MAY BE WARM.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM PLUS ACTUALLY
GIVING THE TROUGH MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. SREF POPS REMAIN PRETTY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SO TRENDED POPS IN THAT WAY.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWER TREND WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES THIS PERIOD
WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OR CUTOFF DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. CANADIAN IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS. AGAIN SREF POPS ARE
RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. SO AGAIN INCREASED POPS
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST HALF. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SLOWLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AROUND ON
SUNDAY TRENDED THE MAXES DOWN. BUT AGAIN AM AFRAID THAT AM TOO WARM.

MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SURFACE WILL
MAKE FOR DRY DAY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RATHER BENIGN PERIOD. MAY BE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DRY
PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGING BY THE END WILL MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY RAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...EVEN IN AREAS CONSISTANTLY
RECEIVING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE
TERMINALS HAVE SEEN MVFR CEILINGS. RUC MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING...SO
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL APPROACH
IFR AS RAINFALL INCREASES...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE REMAINING INTO THE
SATURDAY EVENING HOURS.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081445-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011 /1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO OCCUR. STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCOOK NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE KANSAS.
STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

KSZ042-080315-
WICHITA-
1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 1001 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH OVER WICHITA COUNTY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10157 3866 10152 3869 10112 3827 10112
      3826 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 204DEG 37KT 3850 10127

ROBINSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

KSZ028-041-042-080345-
GREELEY-LOGAN-WICHITA-
1015 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...GREELEY
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...

AT 1010 PM CDT/910 PM MDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11
MILES WEST OF SCOTT STATE LAKE TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF SELKIRK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 10122 3884 10082 3873 10082 3869 10084
      3870 10112 3832 10112 3826 10115 3826 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 216DEG 48KT 3870 10106 3834 10153

ROBINSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
937 PM MDT FRI OCT 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE GOVE               38.94N 100.46W
10/07/2011                   GOVE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
945 PM MDT FRI OCT 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S HOXIE               39.33N 100.44W
10/07/2011                   SHERIDAN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 23 JUST SOUTH OF HOXIE

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MDT FRI OCT 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALMENA                  39.89N 99.71W
10/07/2011  M59 MPH          NORTON             KS   MESONET

            RELAYED BY KSN WEATHER LAB

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT FRI OCT 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HEAVY RAIN       13 NW LEOTI             38.62N 101.53W
10/07/2011  M2.30 INCH       WICHITA            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLAMMERS