Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
235 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

THE 20Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS A TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ARCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE THE HIGH PLAINS. LTG DETECTION AND
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING BACK
WEST ON SATURDAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES INTO THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD AND THEN FINALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS THAT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THAT AREA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. PLAN TO GO
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE FA THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASING POPS IN THE NORTHWEST FA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD BE OVER THE FA FRIDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON MORE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS. PLAN TO GO NIL POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND HOLD
POPS DOWN TO  SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO +16 TEMPERATURE
AT H7. PLAN TO USE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMING ACROSS THE FA AND MOISTURE FETCH CONTINUING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL ACT
TO FOCUS PARAMETERS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS APPARENT CANNOT RULE OUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FLOW TAKING THEM FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA
SATURDAY EVENING. TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS STORMS IN EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS WELL. PLAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY EVENING DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE FA
AFTER 06Z MON.

850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 95 TO 100
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 65 IN
THE WESTERN FA TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COMING AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH EVENING FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPR 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 65 IN THE WESTERN FA TO THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE EAST.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAF...ANTICIPATE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
EFFECTIVE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WILL BE WATCHING CONVECTION
THAT IS STARTING TO ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS IT HAS THE
BEST CHANCE TO IMPACT EITHER AND/OR BOTH TERMINALS. AT PRESENT
TIME...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...IT WOULD IMPACT THE KGLD TERMINAL
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 02Z WHILE AT KMCK IT WOULD ARRIVE TIL AFTER
04Z. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40KTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LOWER CIGS AND VIS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE.

007

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221445-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1047 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011 /1147 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

KSZ042-220015-
WICHITA-
642 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF LEOTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10155 3845 10157 3870 10130 3854 10112
      3827 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 219DEG 14KT 3841 10138

JLUNDQUI