Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1059 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
254 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OUT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. A
FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVING
OUT INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EFFECTIVELY
FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WAS NOTED IN THE
MORNING ANALYSIS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING EAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COOL FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS BUT WERE TOPPING 100 DEGREES UPWARD TO 105
DEGREES FROM HILL CITY THROUGH LEOTI AND TRIBUNE. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LET THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING EXPIRE ON TIME. AT
THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS ALTHOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD BE APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS AROUND HILL CITY. FOR THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GET ORGANIZED AND MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE. THE STORMS MAY HAVE CONTINUED SUPPORT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS WITH THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE HAVE
TONIGHT THE FRONT COULD BE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA OR EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS
THE AREA STILL COMING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THINK THAT AT LEAST
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE UPPER HIGH
REBUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK TO OVER THE
CENTURY MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT THE HIGH
WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AROUND THE DAY 7-9 TIME PERIOD AS THE MODELS
SHOW A BROAD TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SOME WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT IF THE
MODELS ACTUALLY PAN OUT THIS WAY BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL HAPPEN.

99
&&

.AVIATION...
1059 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

06Z TAFS...CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT KGLD BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AS OUTFLOW
FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREA.
HI-RES HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE COLD POOL/ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING AT KMCK BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE...AND VERY
UNPREDICTABLE. MAIN IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER 12Z LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THUNDERSTORMS END. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
518 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2011 /618 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR TODAY...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER WILL BE COMMON IN
SEVERAL AREAS...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF A TRENTON TO HOXIE LINE INTO
THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BULLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
930 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

COZ092-KSZ041-210400-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-GREELEY-
930 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 923 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SHERIDAN LAKE TO 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LYDIA...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

AT 927 PM MDT SYRACUSE AIRPORT CONTINUED TO REPORT GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3827 10205 3861 10205 3861 10230
      3868 10236 3875 10205 3870 10204 3870 10190
      3826 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 256DEG 12KT 3859 10213 3779 10158

JLUNDQUI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

COZ092-KSZ002-003-013>015-027>029-041-042-210600-
CHEYENNE
COUNTY-DECATUR-GOVE-GREELEY-LOGAN-RAWLINS-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-WICHITA-
1224 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND
FOR THOMAS...SHERMAN...SHERIDAN...RAWLINS...LOGAN...GREELEY...DECATUR
...GOVE...WALLACE...AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.

AT 1222 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDED
FROM GEM TO SHARON SPRINGS TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM IN
THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10200 3833 10205 3861 10205 3861 10234
      3874 10247 3905 10210 3905 10205 3909 10205
      3957 10146 3957 10141 3961 10141 3996 10098
      3959 10023 3869 10093 3870 10112 3845 10112
      3826 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 211DEG 12KT 3875 10158

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2011

KSZ002-003-013>015-027-028-041-042-210630-
DECATUR-GREELEY-LOGAN-RAWLINS-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
WICHITA-
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS...SHERMAN...SHERIDAN...RAWLINS...LOGAN...
GREELEY...DECATUR...WICHITA...AND WALLACE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

AT 1254 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
FROM OBERLIN TO TRIBUNE. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WINONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL
ALSO OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 10204 3999 10074 3967 10042 3913 10077
      3913 10081 3907 10081 3870 10104 3870 10112
      3857 10112 3830 10129 3828 10202
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 238DEG 18KT 3899 10127

MENTZER