Heat Advisory 2, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
315 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
SHIFTS EAST SOME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE RETROGRESSES AND
AMPLIFIES SOME MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FA EACH
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHT PERIODS. CURRENT
RADAR STILL GETTING RETURNS ON SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
DECREASING WITH TIME BUT EXPECT THESE TO LAST INTO THE MORNING SO
WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH CAPE
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR AT 40 KTS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPR 90S TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 IN
THE WESTERN FA TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1153 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER 21Z...AND THEN MOVE EAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING
CONVECTION OVER KGLD...AND AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP
OF TSRA BETWEEN 01Z-04Z THERE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMCK...BUT WILL JUST MENTION VCTS THERE DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF BOTH SITES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011 /1139 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 3 PM
MDT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL. ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO OAKLEY KANSAS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW JOES              39.68N 102.77W
07/09/2011                   YUMA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS WERE UNDERWATER.

&&

MENTZER