Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Goodland, KS

477 
WWUS53 KGLD 092253
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

COC063-092330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-110709T2330Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
453 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN KIT
CARSON COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 445 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VONA...AND WAS MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BETHUNE AND BURLINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 400 AND 450.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 211.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10205 3919 10204 3918 10205 3921 10298
      3957 10299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 271DEG 40KT 3935 10255
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN
$$

024

035 
WWUS53 KGLD 092304
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
504 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

COC063-092330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-110709T2330Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
504 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 503 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STRATTON...AND WAS
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BETHUNE AND BURLINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 415 AND 450.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 211.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10269 3957 10205 3923 10204 3918 10205
      3920 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 273DEG 27KT 3936 10258
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN
$$

024

740 
WWUS53 KGLD 092330
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

COC063-092340-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-110709T2330Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 3957 10269 3957 10205 3923 10204 3918 10205
      3920 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 273DEG 27KT 3935 10233
$$

024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
240 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NOTED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO.

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AIDING IN
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF THIS CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. PORTIONS OF YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS. GIVEN PROGGED STORM MOTION OF 15 TO
20KTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. ONE AND THREE HOUR FFG FOR YUMA COUNTY
WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. KEPT IT CONFINED TO YUMA COUNTY BASED ON ANTECEDENT
SOIL MOISTURE AND HIGHER FFG VALUES FOR SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH
WBZ HEIGHTS APPROACHING 15K FEET AND -20C HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 25K
FT...DON'T FEEL LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS
EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES
PUSHING 1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40KTS SHOULD
HELP UPDRAFTS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SHEAR DROPS OFF MARKEDLY AS
YOU GO FURTHER INTO KANSAS SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING SO WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 105 BY EARLIER AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINT VALUES HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S RESULTING IN APPARENT
TEMPS OF AROUND 105.

PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO CONTAIN
POPS TO THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMES RATHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED WITH PRECIP MENTIONS. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN
TEMPS REMAINING IN UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105. CONVECTION FROM MID-
WEEK ON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PRIMARILY EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1153 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER 21Z...AND THEN MOVE EAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING
CONVECTION OVER KGLD...AND AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP
OF TSRA BETWEEN 01Z-04Z THERE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMCK...BUT WILL JUST MENTION VCTS THERE DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF BOTH SITES AFTER 06Z.
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ004-015-016-
     029.

NE...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011 /1139 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 3 PM
MDT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL. ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO OAKLEY KANSAS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MENTZER